The Jacksonville Jaguars head into the final stretch of the 2024 season after their bye week feeling refreshed and refocused when they host Houston this weekend.
This will be a crucial six-game marathon for the Jaguars as the future of the coaching staff and front office hangs in the balance after a weak 2-9. On the bright side, this is a franchise quarterback appears closer to returning to play this week after missing two games with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder.
While Jacksonville almost certainly won't make the postseason, Houston fans could be in for a panic with an upset.
Jaguars Wire takes a closer look at some of this weekend's most important matches.
Jacksonville WR Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Houston CB Derek Stingley Jr.
This one-on-one matchup represents two talented athletes who will be among the best players at their respective positions for years to come. Stingley has played at a high level this season and is one of Houston's best defenders, while Thomas has developed into one of the better young wide receivers in the league and one of the faces of Jacksonville's future.
It cannot be overstated how important this is to a match. Thomas has played well in recent weeks and has emerged as the Jaguars' best playmaker this year. With Lawrence potentially back under center, the team's first-round pick could lead to an increase in his target share this year.
Stingley is one of the best corners in the game. He uses his size, technique and pure athleticism to shut down any receiver that goes against him. Thomas has the ability to beat male defenders at will, with the incredible fluidity, short-range quickness and ultra-explosiveness that have made him a three-tier threat.
If Thomas wins this battle, Jacksonville will be one step closer to an upset.
The Jaguars offensive line vs. the Texans defensive line
As bad as the Jaguars have been this season, their offensive line remains solid, especially on the interior. The team has allowed the sixth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL (28.7%) and will face a Texans defense that ranks third in pressure rate (40.3%).
Winning in the trenches has been an uphill battle for Jacksonville all season, and there's a chance to win there on Sunday on both sides of the ball. According to Next Gen Stats, Jaguars guards Exra Cleveland and Brandon Scherff and center Mitch Morse all allowed pressure on less than five percent of their pass-blocking snaps.
Things get tricky around the edges as tackles Walker Little and Anton Harrison face off against Texas defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr., one of the league's best pass-rushing duos. Jacksonville will need its young tackles to get off to good starts to slow down Houston's pass rushers.
This is not a favorable matchup for the Jaguars. It could be that Harrison and Little can stay consistent in their pass-blocking sets and create momentum on the edges in the running game, which will be crucial to matching the No. 5 defense in yards allowed.
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Jacksonville leads the defense
One of the Jaguars' stories this season has been their lazy defensive play in almost every facet, especially against the run, where they allowed the seventh-most rushing yards in the NFL (135.5).
Interestingly, however, they defended the run well even on runs created from outside. According to Next Gen Stats, Jacksonville has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards above expectations (-65) and the seventh-lowest success rate (34.0%) on those specific play calls.
Defensive ends Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker were big reasons for Jacksonville's success against outside hitters. Walker is third on the team in run stops (35) and Hines-Allen has 23 this season. Her attacking power and her discipline in the run were very remarkable this year.
This week they face Mixon, who has run nine of his touchdowns outside and has the fifth-highest RYOE (+116) in the nfl in that area. Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik tends to use the outside zone to stay out of the tackle box and put pressure on defenders on the edges.
Staying ahead will be crucial for the Jaguars, especially against Mixon. Walker and Hines-Allen will have to do their jobs to close their respective gaps and become strong defenders to corner Mixon.
If the Jaguars can limit Mixon's ability to extend the lead, Jacksonville has a chance for a nice win on Thanksgiving weekend.