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The bluebloods of the SEC meet when the Alabama Crimson Tide travel to Death Valley to take on the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge on Saturday night
| WHO | No. 11 Alabama vs. No. 15 LSU |
| WHEN | Saturday, November 9, 2024, 7:30 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | Tiger Stadium | Baton Rouge, Louisiana |
| HOW | ABC |
College Football Playoff hopes could well be on the line Saturday night in the Bayou as No. 11 Alabama sits at -2.5 to -3 for this rivalry away from home against 15th ranked home underdog LSU. The game is expected to score relatively high with a total score of 58.5. Both teams are 6-2, but the Crimson Tide already have two SEC losses to just one for the Tigers. Alabama can't afford another loss if it wants to have an outside chance at an appearance in the SEC Championship Game.
Both teams have additional time to prepare and get injured players healthy after a bye week.
Alabama has gone back and forth between wins and losses over the past five weeks, a stretch that began with an incredibly promising 41-34 victory over Georgia. However, that was followed by an absolutely impressive 40-35 loss at Vanderbilt as a 22.5-point favorite, before a 27-25 home win against South Carolina, a 24-17 road loss against Tennessee and a 34-0 home win against Missouri followed.
LSU had largely regained its balance after a season-opening loss to USC in Las Vegas and rattled off six straight wins, including an impressive 29-26 win over Ole Miss. However, the Tigers suffered a setback last week, losing at Texas A&M 28-23.
At Alabama has the advantage by a little less than a field goal with a -142 chance of winning an implied probability of winning of 59%.
In the first year of the playoffs with 12 teams, the of the season this week. Alabama would be projected into the field at No. 11, while LSU still has a lot of work to do at No. 15. It's important to remember that only conference champions can earn a top-four spot and a first-round bye.
At Alabama is the sixth pick in National Championship betting at +1800, while LSU is at +4000.
Important injuries to monitor
LSU lost offensive guard Garrett Dellinger to an ankle injury in the Tigers' final game at Texas A&M. He had rope surgery and head coach Brian Kelly predicted a Week 12 return to Florida. Redshirt freshman Paul Mubenga was the backup against the Aggies.
LSU WR CJ Daniels missed the second half against Texas A&M with a lower leg injury; However, the bye week came at a good time. Kelly said he was feeling much better heading into this game.
Alabama has no starter injuries to monitor this week.
| market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama was spreading | -2.5 (-120) | -2.5 (-115) | -3 (-105) |
| LSU spread | +2.5 (-102) | +2.5 (-105) | +3 (-115) |
| Alabama money line | -142 | -142 | -145 |
| LSU money line | +118 | +120 | +122 |
| Over | Over 58.5 (-106) | Over 58 (-110) | Over 58.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 58.5 (-114) | Under 58 (-110) | Under 58.5 (-110) |
Why bet on Alabama?
defense has been LSU's biggest problem under Brian Kelly, and the Tigers still have some liabilities that Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe could potentially take advantage of. This is still the No. 43 ranked defense in college football, scoring 23.0 points per game and 24.7 over the last three games.
Meanwhile, Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer's offense ranks 12th nationally with 37.6 points per game. The expanded Expected Points Added (EPA) per game metric also shows a promising matchup for the Tide. Alabama averages 0.122 EPA per play, fifth in the country. LSU's rush defense is at -0.50 EPA per play, just 33rd in the FBS.
Why bet on LSU?
In college football, it doesn't get much harder than going to Tiger Stadium on a Saturday night. Most respected For handicappers, this is the highest level of home advantage in the sport.
As far as encounters go, the trenches are a very notable starting point. QB Garrett Nussmeier is a potential first-round pick and has barely been touched this season. LSU is No. 3 in the FBS in QB sacks allowed per game, with just 0.6 per game. Meanwhile, Alabama's defense ranks just 56th in college football with a sack rate of 6.43%.
With that kind of protection, it's no wonder Nussmeier posted a top-five rate in FBS this season, falling behind on 60.7% of snaps.
Best bet for Alabama vs. LSU: Alabama -3 (-105, Caesars)
Although he hasn't had many sacks, Nussmeier has consistently turned the ball over, with seven of his nine interceptions coming in the last four games. By dropback EPA per play, this is still the No. 18 LSU passing offense against the No. 6 Alabama pass defense.
In the ground game the contrast is even stronger. LSU averages just 0.05 EPA per play, ranking 29th in the FBS; while Alabama's defense allows -0.12 EPA per rush, a top-six mark.
Looking at the big picture of betting market power ratings, most see Alabama being about nine points better than LSU on the neutral field. While Tiger Stadium has one of the best home field advantages in college football, the highest level of HFA in the FBS is still valued at around 3.5 points. Just scoring a field goal here has great value.
Alabama supporters have Jalen Milroe on their side, who rushed LSU for 155 yards and four rushing touchdowns last season to go along with 219 passing yards in a 42-28 win.
Prediction: Alabama 31, LSU 27
