It's a little late this week, so let's not beat around the bush. Let’s talk about the Indianapolis Colts passing game.
After a pretty good week last week, the numbers here don't paint a good picture. Richardson has a 39.3% completion rate and a 6.1 YPA. Pretty bad!
Some of the advanced numbers don't look much better. recorded his receivers with 2 drops and 3 throwaways. Throw in a batted ball and his adjusted completion percentage was 56.5%. Certainly better than 39.3% (math!), but anything below 60% is generally frowned upon.
As I've mentioned many times, PFF is notoriously generous with wide receivers when it comes to drops. It's subjective, but I almost always record 2-3 more drops per game than PFF, and that was true here. Not to mention, one of those drops was a surefire TD, which makes the numbers look better (even if the adjusted completion percentage would have remained the same).
The statement that the numbers would look better if he got a little help is true, but Richardson also struggled when he was clean. In this game, Richardson kept a clean sheet on 56.7% of his dropbacks. On these dropbacks, he averaged 2.15 seconds to get rid of the ball while completing 62.5% of his passes (75% completion rate) and 163 yards (10.2 YPA).
It was the negative pressure stuff that killed him. He was pressured on 43.3% of his dropbacks and completed an abysmal 8.3% of his passes (14.3% adjusted) for 9 yards (0.8 YPA). He averaged 3.48 seconds, which feels right; While some of that pressure was on the line, Richardson is certainly guilty of some of that pressure by holding on to the ball for too long. Some of these numbers may look worse than other QBs simply because Richardson is fighting like crazy not to get a sack, which leads to some less-than-ideal passes in those situations, causing the completion rate to drop.
As has been the case all season, Richardson had an ADOT (average depth of target) of 14.1 yards on the ball in this game. While that's a high number, it's only the fourth-highest ADOT in a game of Richardson's season. For the season, Richardson has the highest ADOT in the league among regular starters at 12.9. Jameis Winston is second with an ADOT of 10.6. That 2.3-yard gap is the gap between Winston at No. 2 and Dak Prescott, CJ Stroud and Joe Burrow at No. 14 (8.3 ADOT).
That's a long way to say that Richardson regularly throws deeper than any other QB in the league, and it's not particularly close.
Overall, not Richardson's cleanest game, but he played much better than the numbers (even some of the advanced numbers) suggest. There will be some bumps in the road, but against a good Lions defense I was much more optimistic about his appearance than I saw in person.
Okay, let's watch a play before we get out of here. Of course, this isn't finalized yet, but it's a concept I've been wanting to bring up in this space all season, so I guess now is the time to do it.
I haven't recorded every passing play yet (loosely, I know), but the Colts seem to run this play at least once per game. It is almost always open, but the hit rate is low because the throw either misses the target or the ball is dropped. If they can ever agree on this, they definitely will eat.
It is a simple off-play action with a two-man concept. The Colts are heavily loaded with 12 players (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR), with both TEs on the right side in a YY wing look. Richardson carries shotgun/pistol, along with Jonathan Taylor [28] aligned behind him. They play action and then release Alec Pierce [14] and Michael Pittman [11] into their routes.
Pittman executes an intermediate in-cutter while Pierce executes a big crosser over the top. The Lions show a two-high safety look before the snap, but switch to a single-high look after the snap. This is perfect for where the Colts are trying to attack.
Pierce gets an inside release at the line and fights to keep it in the field. As the safety drops over Pittman, that leaves an ocean of space for Pierce.
Richardson holds on to this ball one shot too long. He checks the safety and knows he has Pierce, but hesitates to throw until Pierce is a little further into the route. DJ Reader [98] pushes from the inside of the line, and the slight hesitation from Richardson allows Reader to make contact as the ball comes out.
It's a nice throw, but a little too deep for Pierce. Pierce puts it down and tries to get it in, but it's just a little too deep.
Like I said, the Colts do this a lot and Pierce is almost always open. If they can get the timing just a little bit better, it will be huge for them.
Albums listened to: Tom Waits – Small change; Tiny Deaths – When I dream