The Los Angeles Dodgers have agreed to sign the left-handed starter Blake Snell to a five-year, $182 million contract. Considering the Dodgers are World Series champions with a ton of talent and a monstrous payroll, the first big move of the offseason, sending a two-time Cy Young winner to Los Angeles on a nine-figure deal, is sure to turn heads care for . Let's examine the consequences.
Snell's outlook
Let's be clear: When Blake Snell performs, he is amazing. At times he throws like the best pitcher in baseball. Sometimes the routes are very long. At least he has the two Cy Youngs. Few players have a 6+ WAR season on their dossiers; Snell has a 6.2 and a 7.1.
But …
Do you know what his third-highest WAR is in his nine-year career? It's 2.2.
He pitched 180 ⅔ innings in his first Cy Young season (2018) and 180 innings in his second (2023). His next highest total is 129 ⅓. At the risk of jettisoning his rookie year in which he didn't debut until April 23 and 2020, it's still worth noting that Snell was an All-Star just once in his seven remaining seasons.
Last year was a pretty good example of the entire Blake Snell experience. He had a 9.51 ERA in six starts before being placed on the injured list due to a groin injury. He missed about five weeks. When he returned he was great. He started 14 games the rest of the season Giantshe went 5-0 (the team was 12-2 in his starts), with a 1.23 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP and 114 strikeouts in 80 ⅓ innings. He allowed just 33 hits and two home runs, for an opposing batting average of .123 and a slugging percentage of .171. It was just an insane streak of pitching dominance.
Snell will be 32 next season and is working with a team that gets the most out of its starting players while they're on a mound. Remember, he just signed on March 19th of last spring. So one could argue that his terrible start and subsequent injury were a direct result of him not completing a full spring training. He will have enough time this year to prepare for the start of the season.
Basically, a third season at the Cy Young level is a good bet. It's just that out of nine years of this caliber, we've only seen two full years.
Dodgers huge rotation upside
It's not just Cy Young-winning Snell leading the Dodgers' rotation.
Tyler Glasnow Looks like an ace at routes even on the mound. He's just never done it in a full season like Snell did twice. The closest Glasnow came was last season, when he pitched a career-high 134 innings. He pitched to a 3.49 ERA (111 ERA+) and 0.95 WHIP with 168 strikeouts against 35 walks. He made the All-Star team for the first time.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto also has an ace advantage. A shoulder injury meant he only made 18 starts in the regular season, but he made four appearances in the playoffs, including a dominant start in World Series Game 2. To give a sense of Yamamoto's abilities, his 13 starts between his terrible debut and his injury resulted in a 2.34 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and 82 strikeouts in 73 innings.
Shohei Ohtani is also coming back from elbow surgery and should be in pretty good shape considering the procedure took place in September 2023. In Ohtani's three years of rotation at the angelHe had a 2.84 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP with 542 strikeouts in 428 ⅓ innings. This is a frontline starter. In fact, he finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting in 2022 when he was 15-9 with a 2.33 ERA and 219 strikeouts.
That's four aces, right?
The Dodgers have it too Tony Gonsolin And Dustin May They have survived major surgeries that cost them the 2024 season. May has shown some upside and has a career ERA of 3.10. Gonsolin was 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA in 2022.
They may not even be done adding yet, as Roki Sasaki remains on the market and the Dodgers remain interested.
Why? Well, about that…
Great risk of injury
We've already discussed Snell. He only pitched 104 innings last year and enters his age-32 season as a scrawny left-handed hitter with a pretty good history of injuries. He's only pitched 130 innings twice in nine years in the majors.
Glasnow has only pitched 130 innings once, last year he hit 134. He was injured for the playoffs.
Yamamoto pitched 108 ⅔ innings last year, even though we made the playoffs.
Ohtani is a full-time DH with a career-high 166 innings on the mound and is coming off major surgery.
Gonsolin's career high in innings is 130 ⅓. May is 56. Both have had serious operations.
Even if the Dodgers signed Sasaki, the adjustment would be on is always a question, and he was injured last season too. Clayton Kershawwhose return seems inevitable is full of question marks.
The Dodgers also have a long history of pitcher injuries. It's not just Yamamoto and Glasnow last year or May and Gonsolin. There's Kershaw's recent history. Walker Buhler returned from Tommy John surgery last year. Kyle Hurt, River Ryan And Emmet Sheehan are currently recovering from Tommy John surgery Gavin Stone is recovering from shoulder surgery. This also applies to relief Brusdar Graterol. Bobby Miller appeared to be out of balance last season due to injury.
Whether you believe the organization causes pitcher injuries or is worse at preventing them than other teams, or whether it's just a coincidence, there's no denying that Dodgers pitchers get hurt all the time.
That didn't cost them much last season. The Dodgers' rotation was riddled with injuries. Stone was the team leader with 140 ⅓ innings pitched in the regular season. Glasnow was second again at 134. Notably, Yamamoto was third on the team with 90 innings pitched. James Paxton was fourth! Stone and Glasnow were injured for the playoffs, while Paxton was long out.
The Dodgers still won 98 games with the best record in baseball and won the World Series.
Maybe things will be more similar in 2025.
The Dodgers' rotation is brimming with top talent and question marks.
