Given the expectations, well-founded speculation and prevailing horse sense, it is fair to say: No, that Washington Nationals It's pretty unlikely they'll sign Juan Soto this offseason.
Soto is the best and most sought-after free agent in the 2024-25 class and one of the best and most sought-after free agents we've ever seen. His long track record and youth – he's somehow only 26 years old – mean he'll likely sign a contract worth $600 million or more. That in turn means that Clubs with the deepest coffers are likely to be his most serious suitors. In fact, it seems likely at this point that Soto will return at this point Yankees or take a trip across town to Steve Cohen's Mets. The Dodgers, Red SoxAnd Blue Jays are involved. You know how these things work.
But now let's recall the “pretty unlikely” qualifier inserted above and go back to that to talk about the possibility that the Nats will play a major role in the Soto Derby, even if they do is low. Let's look at three reasons in particular why the Nats are at least considering the possibility of a vigorous bid for Soto. Forward, otherworldly like that…
1. They have a story
As you probably know, there is a long history between Soto and the Nats. He was part of the organization from the time they signed him as a 17-year-old amateur from the Dominican Republic in 2016 until the club traded him to the Dominican Republic Padres in August 2022. Under the Nats' watch, Soto developed into a consensus top-100 prospect, and under their watch, too, he exceeded those expectations by becoming one of the best hitters of his generation. Soto spent the first four and a half seasons of his big league career with Washington. Along the way, he was named to the All-Star selection twice, earned three Silver Sluggers, a batting title and three top-10 finishes in NL MVP voting. So far, 21.3 of Soto's career 36.4 WAR came with the team that first signed him. More specifically, Soto was a key member of the 2019 Nats squad that won the World Series. In this seven-game triumph over the AstrosSoto hit .333/.438/.741 with three home runs, seven RBI and six runs scored.
There's a legacy there – an impressive one – and Soto probably still has some fondness for the place where he began his career. Did moving to the Padres damage the relationship between club and player after Soto rejected their offer of a 15-year, $440 million contract extension? This is possible, but the elapsed time and a market offer should clarify this.
2. You have money
When it comes to the salary situation heading into the 2024-25 offseason, the Nationals are the envy of almost every other team in the league. After rejecting their half Joey GalloAs a joint option for next season, the Nats and key decision-maker Mike Rizzo only have $40.4 million on the books for next season. Yes, that number will increase as arbitration increases, but that's still a huge margin (that's worth noting). Stephan StrasburgWith his $35 million commitment for next season, he remains the club's highest-paid player. The only other player with a long-term contract is catcher Keiber Ruiz. Yes, that’s two – two! – Players currently guaranteed to be paid by the Nats next season.
For 2024, the Nats had an opening day active roster payroll of around $125 million. They're also not far away from finishing in the top 10 and even top 5 in payroll. Therefore, there is a lot of room in the budget for a player like Soto. Yes, that's true even if his contract exceeds $600 million, and that's true even if the average annual value of his commitment reaches record levels. No, the Nationals don't have the resources of the Yankees, Mets or Dodgers, but they do have enough purchasing power to pay Soto.
On another level, after five straight losing seasons — including a 107-loss season in 2022 — the Nats have drastically improved their base of young talent in recent years and are poised to emerge from a lengthy rebuild. Soto fits exactly into this development and promises groundbreaking added value for the coming years.
3. You have needs
Of course, every team needs a hitter like Soto in the lineup. Of course, this also applies to the Nationals. Last season, they ranked 25th in the majors in runs scored, 25th in OPS, 25th in walks and 29th in home runs. Suffice it to say, Soto would drastically improve things on all of these fronts. As for Soto's role, he was the Yankees' primary right fielder last season, and in his career he has logged slightly more defensive innings at left than right. In the Nats' case, they can offer him the corner spot of his choice and then bring in the best candidate Dylan Crews in the other. James Wood can man DH until Soto is ready to take on that role later.
Can the Nats survive the surprise of the winter? Probably not. However, they have the financial flexibility to pay Soto, the need for him in the lineup, and a rich history on which to build their recruiting pitch. It's unlikely to happen, but it should happen.
