Major League Baseball's offseason is approaching another important date – one that is sure to see some big-name players join the free agent ranks. Teams have until Friday, November 22nd to decide which arbitration-eligible players they will offer a contract for next season and which they will allow to become free agents sooner than expected.
You may have heard of the concept of “not offering” a player. If so (or not), allow us to break it down into more malleable terms. Most players become eligible for arbitration after completing three years of service. (Some receive this award after two years – these are called “Super Two” players.) From then on, they have the opportunity to earn more money than they previously earned in the league.
The downside to making more money, if any, is that teams are more likely to cut ties with that player if they feel like their salary exceeds their production. This in turn may result in the player being non-tendered or released from his commitment to his team, without any cost (financial or otherwise) to the club itself. Not being offered doesn't necessarily mean the player is done or useless. Last year's crop included Lefty Reliever Tim HillRight-handed Spencer Turnbull And Cooper Criswelland infielder Nick Senzel. Everyone had a productive 2024 in their own way.
Who could try to emulate these players' boots in 2025? Below we've highlighted 10 players who we believe are bubble cases. In any case, we have made a prediction about whether the player will be tendered or not. It should be noted that this is more of an art than a science and that this article uses projected arbitration awards Matt Swartz's model at MLB Trade Rumors. Now to the reason you clicked.
McCormick is coming off the worst performance of his career in which he dropped more than 50 points in every triple slash category. His underlying measures didn't fare much better: He struck out more often and walked and ran the ball less often. Nonetheless, there's enough track record and potential here (even now, he has a career 108 OPS+) that we assume the Astros are okay with offering him a contract and seeing if he bounces back in his age-30 season the legs can come. forecast: Written out
Manoah is just two seasons removed from a third-place finish in Cy Young Award voting. You can be forgiven if it feels like a lot more time has passed. Manoah performed better last season than he did in 2023, albeit in limited selection. He made just five big league appearances (and ten overall) before succumbing to season-ending elbow surgery. Manoah is also expected to miss at least the start of the 2025 season. The Blue Jays still have several seasons left of remaining in control of the team, which suggests they will keep him for at least another winter. forecast: Written out
Like the aforementioned Manoah, it had been a long two years for McKenzie. While he still looked like a building block in 2022, he has posted an ERA over 5.00 in 20 big league games since then. He split time between the majors and minors last year and showed reduced speed and control. McKenzie is now 27 and out of options. We could see the Guardians deciding to move on. forecast: Not advertised
A logical mid-season acquisition that just didn't work out as planned. Hays appeared in 22 games for the Phillies after transferring from Baltimore, hitting .256/.275/.397 (86 OPS+) and missing time with a hamstring injury and a kidney infection. These complaints weren't his fault, of course, but we wonder if the Phillies would prefer to divert the money earmarked for him toward a bigger fish. forecast: Not advertised
This time a year ago, Bednar was coming off back-to-back All-Star Game appearances and was a prime trade candidate. Instead, the Pirates stuck with him and… well, here he is after a season in which his statistical profile has worsened in every way. We doubt the Pirates will part ways through a non-tender. A source we spoke to predicted a trade was more likely. If this comes to fruition, it should serve as a reminder to non-candidates to always move elite relievers sooner rather than later. forecast: Written out
The Rays added Carlson, a reasonable buy-low candidate, in a small deadline trade Cardinals. He got off to a shockingly good start in Tampa Bay, posting an .836 OPS through his first ten games, making it seem like his long-awaited breakthrough had arrived. He then took off from there, hitting .212/.280/.259 in his subsequent 27 contests to close out the year. We could imagine this going both ways: Even the Rays can afford to take a $2.7 million gamble, but given his big league career so far, we can hardly argue that Carlson deserves the investment. forecast: Not advertised
Vaughn, the No. 3 pick in the 2019 draft, is nearing his age-27 season. My goodness, how time flies. Unfortunately for Vaughn, he didn't live up to his amateur hype. He will enter the new year having posted a 101 OPS+ in his first four big league seasons. There's not much reason to believe that better days are coming, although the White Sox may decide they're fine with giving him another bite at the apple before getting serious about looking for an upgrade in the cold corner. forecast: Written out
Blackburn appeared five times for the Mets after coming in a deadline trade from Oakland. He missed all of September and New York's entire run to the NLCS after experiencing one Spinal fluid leaked from his back. That doesn't sound particularly pleasant to us. What's worse is that the Mets, who made almost all of their pitching bets last winter, could decide they'd rather throw the $4 million on a pitcher who has a slightly better track record of durability. forecast: Not advertised
Three full seasons have passed since Baddoo posted a two-win season and appeared to be a Rule 5 success story. During that span, he appeared in 216 games and posted an OPS of .619. Baddoo is still on the younger side (he celebrated his 26th birthday in August), but we think the Tigers will pass on paying him that kind of coin – especially after a surprising playoff appearance. forecast: Not advertised
The Rockies are reportedly looking to trim their payroll before next season. One way to accomplish this would be to waive Quantrill's potential $9 million commitment. Although he got off to a good start, he was terrible as the game progressed. In seven appearances in August and September, he gave up 23 runs on 37 hits while walking more batters (24) than he struck out (20). We doubt the Rocky Mountains will even be able to find a trading partner given the cost of Quantrill, leaving them with only one option. forecast: Not advertised
