While it may have to wait for a litany of free agents to find their homes, all signs point to it Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado will be traded this offseason. That's the direction the Cardinals are headed, and Arenado himself seems to be on board – as long as he likes the destination enough to waive his no-trade clause. He's reportedly even Open to moving to first base.
Arenado is owed $59 million over the next two seasons, but $10 million of that will be paid by Arenado Rockies and it's always possible that the Cardinals could pick up some of the remaining money to facilitate a trade. Then, in 2027, Arenado is expected to make $15 million in his age-36 season.
The eight-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glover hit .272/.325/.394 (101 OPS+) with 16 homers, 71 RBI and 2.5 WAR last season while continuing to prove to be a very capable defender at third base. There is more concern about his decline in hitting, especially given the higher offensive bar that a move to first base would bring. However, he also posted a WAR of 7.7 two years ago and finished third in MVP voting, so it's possible there's still something left in the tank.
Here are 10 teams that could make sense as trade partners for the Cardinals. Of course, this is purely speculative, but there are enough participants that it would be feasible for any of these ball clubs.
The Astros immediately come to mind because Arenado is a heavy-hitting hitter (According to FanGraphs, Arenado ranked 23rd last season). in pull% and it wasn't an outlier) and the Crawford Boxes in Houston could help revitalize his hitting. Arenado will want to join a contender, and there aren't many teams that are as obvious contenders as the Astros, considering they haven't missed the playoffs since 2016. There could be a gap at third base if Alex Bregman is heading to free agency, but the Astros could also take Arenado up on his offer to move to first base and try to add both to their payroll. Last season, Houston used a combination of Jose Abreu and Jon Singleton at the cold corner. In other words, an upgrade wouldn't be difficult.
The Yankees' top priority this offseason is obvious Juan Soto. Once the dust settles there, we'll see where they stand. They have a chance at first base after letting Anthony Rizzo in free agency. They could also put Arenado at third and play Jazz Chisholm Jr. in second place. Such a move would improve the Yankees' defense – which proved to be their undoing in Game 5 of the World Series – but the ballpark does Arenado's bat no favors considering how little he ever hits the ball into right field.
Pete Alonso is a free agent while the Mets are on the trail of Soto. That means the Mets certainly wouldn't be a factor here until at least Soto and maybe even Alonso were signed. If the Mets bring Alonso back, it doesn't really seem like it would be a good fit for Arenado. If Alonso signs elsewhere — yes, even if the Mets sign Soto — Arenado would work out.
Mark Vientoswho is coming off a breakthrough power season with 27 home runs and 71 RBI in 111 games, is probably better suited to play first base than third in the long run. Moving him across the diamond and moving Arenado to third works.
The component of going to a contender would be happy with how the Mets made it to the NLCS last year and, furthermore, how prepared they appear to be for the future.
The D-Backs made the World Series in 2023 and improved to 89 wins last season, but that meant they missed the playoffs this time. You'd probably much rather just bring it with you Christian Walker back in free agency, but if he signs elsewhere, the D-backs would have a hole to fill. They could either put Arenado at third and move Eugenio Suárez to first base, or just put Arenado at first.
We know Arenado is very familiar with the NL West and Chase Field is a hitter-friendly environment, even if it's not Coors Field.
The Mariners are in a situation where they are used to struggling. They have won 90, 90, 88 and 85 games in each of the last four seasons. They have a lot of space and urgently need attack. We know Jerry Dipoto isn't afraid of trade talks.
It looks like a Gold Glove winner Dylan Moore could end up at third, but he won the award as a utility player, not a third baseman. Luke Raley could be the first baseman, but again, he's more of a utility guy. The Mariners have the flexibility to get Arenado fit, and they certainly have the money.
But would Arenado go there? T-Mobile Park was the worst park in the majors for hitters from 2022-24. He's already dealing with declining offenses and has a no-trade clause. It seems like he wants to avoid this somewhat.
The Jays are in a tough spot as they try to impress Vladimir Guerrero Jr., they are doing enough to compete to get him to sign a long-term contract extension. They are also trying hard to convince Juan Soto that they are in a good enough position for him to sign there. If you're going all-in, there's no harm in playing for Arenado.
Ernie Clement is currently in third place, but he is an all-rounder. Arenado could stay next door here at third Bo Bichette – who will certainly have an upswing season here in his final year before free agency – initially with Guerrero.
Could the Jays pull off a Soto signing and Arenado trade? That would be pretty interesting.
There were already rumors about the Red Sox's move Rafael Devers away from the third and over the diamond to the first. Opening at third would be an easy fit for Arenado, and coincidentally next to his former Rockies teammate Trevor story. Remember how I mentioned above that Arenado is one of the busiest players in baseball? Hello, green monster. Arenado would have plenty of fly balls to left field that would be converted into home runs or doubles. The baseball stadium is a great fit.
Such a maneuver – Devers to first, Arenado to third – would likely prompt the Red Sox to deal Triston Casasunless they wanted to make heavy use of the DH spot with this trio and move an outfielder. It's a more difficult proposition, but it could happen and a Casas deal could be used to bolster the pitching staff.
The Tigers are coming off a run to the ALDS and, at least in theory, want to capitalize on the momentum. You don't have much money for the future, so this should be fine. Adding Arenado would either block Jace Jung in third place or train Spencer Torkelson From first to permanent DH at a young age, so it may not sound ideal, but it fits. Jung wasn't good in 34 games as a rookie last year, so it's not like he necessarily needs to play every day in 2025.
The 2024 Royals underwent one of the most remarkable turnarounds in MLB history, suffering 106 losses to the ALDS in a single season. They are ready to fight behind the MVP candidate again Bobby Witt Jr. and a pair of aces Cole Ragans And Seth Lugo. They were already taking advantage of their strength by sending and acquiring pitching on offense Jonathan India. Vinnie Pasquantino is at first, so this would be another team that would correctly keep Arenado at third base. Maikel Garcia is the incumbent third baseman, but he hit .231 with a 72 OPS+ and 1.2 WAR last season. Arenado is an upgrade. It would be a pretty fun move.
Absolutely not, right?
Well, we know that money won't be a barrier and Arenado would certainly jump at the chance to play for them. They would have to lose to Soto and admit that Betts would be their right fielder, but then the Dodgers could use it Max Muncy in the second moment, Gavin Lux at shortstop and Tommy Edman in midfield. That leaves third base open for Arenado.
It actually works. Don't count it out.
