The Angels have been the most aggressive team in baseball through the first month of the offseason, and they continued that pattern this morning by reaching an agreement with the free-agent left-hander Yusei Kikuchi with a three-year contract worth $63 million, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Kikuchi is represented by Boras Corporation.
Kikuchi, 33, spent nine seasons as a pitcher for NPB's Seibu Lions before moving to major league clubs ahead of his age-28 season in the 2018-19 offseason. The left-hander entered into a complex contract with the Mariners that guaranteed the southpaw $56 million over four years, with the fourth year including a $13 million player option that the Mariners acquired by completing a four-year club option worth $66 million.
As complicated as that contract was, Kikuchi's time in Seattle was both disappointing and straightforward. The left-hander struggled in his first two seasons in the majors, posting a poor 5.39 ERA and 5.17 FIP between the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
However, he turned things around in 2021 with a 4.41 ERA (96 ERA+) and a 4.61 FIP. While these numbers are hardly eye-popping, Kikuchi was an All-Star in 2021 and looked dominant at times, with a 2.33 ERA and a 27.5% strikeout rate in a span of 11 starts from late April through Beginning of July. Kikuchi took a risk and entered free agency despite his uneven season. This decision ultimately paid off as he ended up signing a three-year, $36 million contract with the Blue Jays. His time in Toronto began similarly to his stint in Seattle, as he struggled mightily in 2022 with a 5.19 ERA and 5.62 FIP in 100 2/3 innings split between the bullpen and rotation.
Last season, however, at age 32, the left-hander finally figured things out and turned in the consistent performance in the middle of the rotation that both the Mariners and Jays had dreamed of when they signed him. In 32 starts for Toronto in 2023, Kikuchi pitched solidly with a 3.86 ERA with a 25.9% strikeout rate versus a 6.9% walk rate. This solid season seemed to set the left-hander up for another solid season in 2024, although he once again faced some ups and downs. During his time in Toronto this year, Kikuchi fell drastically short of his underlying metrics, as he posted a weak ERA of 4.75, although his 26.2% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate were each improvements over the previous one represented the season. Despite that ugly ERA, the left-hander had a 3.66 FIP, 3.51 SIERA and 3.43 xFIP in his 22 starts with the Blue Jays this year.
These exciting peripherals certainly helped convince the Astros to add young players Jake Bloss, Joey LoperfidoAnd Will Wagner in a trade with the Jays that brought Kikuchi to Houston for the stretch run. That was a steep price to pay for a rental, but the left-hander made up for his price with ten great starts for the Astros after the trade deadline. He managed 60 innings of 2.70 ERA ball, struck out a whopping 31.8% of opponents while walking just 5.9%, and improved his season totals to a league average 4.05 ERA with a FIP of 3.46, which was good for the 16th-best mark among all qualified major league players this year, comfortably sandwiched between the top free agent starters Max Fried (3.33) and Jack Flaherty (3.48).
Now the Angels are betting on these excellent peripheral players, just like their division rivals in Houston did over the summer. In the midst of a busy November in which they struck early to land Jorge Soler, Travis d'Arnaud, Kevin NewmanAnd Kyle Hendricks Now, through trades and free agency, the club has stepped out of its typical comfort zone and signed Kikuchi, the biggest guarantee the Angels have made to a free-agent starter since the right-handed starter's career CJ WilsonKikuchi signed a five-year, $77.5 million contract in 2011. Kikuchi is only the second regular player the club has signed since then to join the future rotation mate Tyler Anderson. Kikuchi, Anderson and Hendricks plan to create a veteran core for Anaheim's starting lineup next year, which could help offset pressure from younger players such as: Reid Detmers, Chase SilsethAnd Jack Kochanowicz.
While Kikuchi's inconsistent performance could raise eyebrows under his new contract, the pact is right in line with the $60 million over three years that MLBTR projected for the left-hander in our annual report List of the top 50 MLB free agents. Kikuchi finished 12th overall on this list and 6th among starters, placing him firmly behind the best in class Corbin Burnes, Blake Snelland Fried, but in a similar conversation to his fellow southpaw Sean Manaea among the better mid-range options on the market. Notably, Kikuchi was not subject to a qualifying offer after he was rendered ineligible by the midseason trade that sent him to Houston. That certainly made him more attractive to an Angels club that has relied heavily on the draft in recent years while seeking speedy players such as Nolan Schanuel, Zach NetoAnd Ben Joyce to the majors.
Before signing with Anaheim this morning, Kikuchi was linked to the Boy in free agency, as the club apparently plans to focus on the middle tier of the starting pitching market this winter, favoring hurlers who aren't burdened by a QO. The Braves and Rangers are among the other teams rumored to be shopping in a similar market, and any team that missed out on Kikuchi should still have a few options available this winter. Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi, Matthew BoydAnd Andrew Heaney are among the pitchers not yet burdened by the QO, expected to sign multi-year contracts, and interesting one-year options such as Walker Buhler And Max Scherzer also remain on the table.
