The Blue Jays are known to be in the Juan Soto Bid, but like all teams they need to consider backup plans. Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith takes a look at their Soto pursuit and realizes they're interested in it too Max Fried, Luis Severino, Anthony Santander And Alex Bregman. MLBTR has previously expressed interest Fried And Santander.
Bregman, 31, is one of the top free agents available this winter. He has a career batting line of .272/.366/.483, which translates to a wRC+ of 135, meaning he was 35% better than league average overall. His strikeout rate has never exceeded 13.6% in any of the last six full seasons, barely half the league average. His walk speed dipped slightly in 2024, but has been above average for most of his career.
He also gets high marks for his defense at third base and is willing to move to second base if he signs with a club that has a greater need there. His clubhouse and leadership skills are often praised by those who have played with him. MLBTR predicted Bregman to a seven-year contract worth $182 million at the start of the offseason. It's widely known that the Astros want him back, but he's also been linked to the Tigers, Red Sox, Phillies and now the Blue Jays.
For the Jays, both third base and second base are pretty rough. Ernie Clement was the first option at the hot corner in 2024 and he had a serviceable season. His batting line of .263/.284/.408 was slightly below average, translating to a wRC+ of 94. But he also stole 12 bases and received high marks for his glove work at third and shortstop, as well as brief looks at second base and left field.
The total package added up to 2.2 wins above replacement in FanGraphs' eyes, and Clement is still on the roster, but he shouldn't stand in the way of the arrival of someone like Bregman. If Bregman were to take on the role of everyday guy at the hot corner, it could move Clement into a utility role that would still allow him to contribute relatively regularly.
At second base, Spencer Horwitz And Davis Schneider got a decent amount of playing time alongside the now deceased Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Horwitz has had good success so far in his major league career, but he is not a natural second baseman and has only moved there since his first base spot was filled Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Many of the designated hitter plate appearances came on Justin Turner in 2024, who is no longer on the team. Maybe that gives Horwitz and Guerrero a chance to share that spot and first base in 2025, depending on what other moves the Jays make this winter. Schneider is coming off a bad season and can also play left field.
The Jays have several other players on the roster who can play either third or second base, including Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, Will Wagner And Leo Jimenezbut no one in this group has even 70 games of major league experience. With the Jays looking to quickly bounce back after a weak 2024 season, it's logical to go with an established major league player like Bregman rather than hoping someone in this group takes a step forward. The Jays were also tied to shortstop Willy Adameswho is reportedly willing to move to third base with his new club if it already has a shortstop. The Jays have Bo Bichette In short, though, he's just a year away from free agency, so this is a move that could potentially help in the short and long term.
The interest in Severino is in line with the club's other rotational aspirations. As already mentioned, they were also associated with Fried Corbin Burnes And Blake Snellalthough Snell is now out of the game due to his agreement with the Dodgers. Severino once appeared to be a rising ace with the Yankees, but he didn't pitch much from 2019 to 2021 due to injuries. He was able to pitch partial seasons in 2022 and 2023, but with inconsistent results.
He's having a solid bounce-back year with the Mets. He made 32 starts and threw 182 innings, the first time since 2018 that he threw more than 102 innings. Along with the quantity, there was also some quality as Severino allowed 3.91 earned runs per inning. His 21.2% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate, and 46% ground ball rate were all pretty close to league average.
Severino isn't as exciting as Burnes or Fried, but he won't cost as much either. MLBTR projected that Burnes had a guaranteed $200 million and Fried was slightly behind at $156 million. Severino, on the other hand, was set to receive a three-year contract worth $51 million.
The Jays have an experienced rotation core consisting of Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman And Chris Bassitt. A ticket is probably reserved for another location Bowden Francis after his strong second half. Fifth place options include: Yariel Rodriguez And Jake Bloss But it makes sense for the Jays to add something. Rodríguez has plenty of experience in relief and the Jays need help in the bullpen, so he could be pushed there, at least until an injury creates a need in the rotation. Bloss has fewer than 12 innings in the big leagues and just 112 in the minors, so he could get some more experience in Triple-A before a big league opportunity presents itself.
On the financial side of things, RosterResource is projecting a $189 million payroll for the Jays next year. President Mark Shapiro has suggested the club will end up with a payroll roughly similar to that in 2024. Cot's Baseball Contracts The opening day number was $225 million last year, so that could leave them with about $35 million of wiggle room.
Adding one of these notable free agents could certainly fit that window, although Soto would be a unique case. The average annual value of his contract will certainly dwarf that number, but Nicholson-Smith has reported that the Jays would make an exception for Soto because they would be willing to stretch the budget further than they otherwise would.
Soto, Bregman, Severino, Fried, Burnes, Santander and Adames each declined a qualifying offer, so associated penalties must also be taken into account. Apparently the Jays ducked under the competition balance tax in 2024 with the mid-season sale, although this is not official yet. If that happens, the Jays would have to give up their second-best pick in the upcoming draft as well as $500,000 in international bonus pool space to sign one of those players.
