The Dodgers continue to load up as they agreed Blake Snell with a five-year contract. The deal, which is still pending physical closing, comes with a guarantee of $182 million but reportedly includes deferrals of around $60 million, bringing the net present value to the range of $160 million to $165 million will be reduced. Snell, a Boras Corporation client, will receive a $52 million signing bonus and limited no-trade protection, while the deal includes a $5 million allocation bonus in the event of a trade. The contract contains no opt-out provisions and covers Snell's seasons from ages 32 to 36.
It's the biggest move of the offseason so far and represents a much quicker solution than Snell's previous rollout. The star southpaw was coming off a Cy Young campaign last winter. The long-term contract he sought did not materialize, leading to an extended stay as a free agent. Snell remained without a contract in March before joining the Giants on a two-year deal that guaranteed him $62 million and, more importantly, allowed him to opt out after the first season.
Snell had a dismal start to the season. In his first six appearances, he allowed more than one run per inning. While he struggled with groin problems, he ended up on the injured list twice in the first three months. As recently as mid-June, it looked like Snell was skirting the chance to return in free agency.
That changed when he returned from his second IL stint. At the end of the season, there was no doubt that he would pass on the remaining $30 million of his contract with San Francisco. Snell was the best pitcher in baseball down the stretch. In his last 14 starts, he posted a 1.23 earned run average and kept opponents at bay with a .123/.211/.171 batting line that looked like a throwback to the days when pitchers hit.
Snell struck out more than 38% of the batters he faced in that run. He had five double-digit strikeout performances and fanned at least eight batters in ten appearances. Snell had the best two-start run of his career just before the trade deadline. On July 27, he had 15 strikeouts in six scoreless innings against the Rockies before going hitless with 11 punchouts against the Reds on August 2.
The overall numbers were still somewhat weighed down by his terrible first two months. He finished the year with a 3.12 ERA and a 34.7% strikeout rate over 104 innings and 20 starts. That was a strong season, but one that didn't earn him a single Cy Young vote. The overall platform year was less impressive than the 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball he pitched during his '23 season in San Diego. However, Snell finished the season just as dominant as in his Cy Young years.
It appears the Dodgers are attributing the first two months to a combination of a shortened spring training and the injuries. While this year was the most extreme example, Snell has been a slow starter throughout his career. In the first half of his nine big league seasons, he posted a 3.95 ERA and a 28.4% strikeout rate. The ERA drops to 2.39 while he increased his strikeout percentage to over 32% after the All-Star break.
The main reason for this was its lack of consistent durability. Snell has reached the 180-inning threshold twice – in his Cy Young 2018 season with the Rays and in his award-winning '23 season. Outside of those seasons, Snell has topped in the 125-130 innings range.
That's nothing to worry about for the Dodgers, as they've shown that they're far more interested in moving up than bulk. Los Angeles acquired and expanded Tyler Glasnow last offseason, even though he had never reached the 120 MLB innings mark in a season. The Dodgers will relent Shohei Ohtani another chance to pitch after his second significant elbow surgery. They will almost certainly get back together Clayton Kershaw. They released a number of talented pitchers from the farm system, but many of them suffered injuries.
It's an approach that's heavily focused on the postseason. The Dodgers are prioritizing pitchers who are considered potential Game 1 starters. They are very willing to accept the risk of injury while chasing that ceiling. That led to them barely starting pitching in 2023, which resulted in a win against the Diamondbacks in the Division Series. The injuries continued to mount this fall, but it was just enough Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty And Walker Buhler to put together a rotation in October. With a star-studded line-up, that was enough to win their second trophy in five years.
Snell arguably fits that mold as well as any pitcher in baseball. Only among pitchers with at least 200 innings in the last two years Reynaldo Lopez And Tarik Skubal have a lower ERA than his 2.57 mark. With a strikeout rate of 32.7%, Snell ranks second, just a fraction of a percentage point behind Glasnow. Nobody has a higher swinging strike rate.
The Dodgers have four pitchers who could start the first game of a playoff series. Snell, Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow are each able to offer top production on an installment basis. It's unlikely all four will be healthy in the playoffs, but the Dodgers have no shortage of talented options. Kershaw expects to be back in the rotation mix once he re-signs Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and view Nick Frasso return from major operations. Bobby Miller is looking to bounce back from a terrible sophomore season after posting a 3.76 ERA in 22 starts as a rookie. Landon Knack And Justin Wrobleski are powerful depth arms.
Even before considering the possibility of further acquisitions. The Dodgers will certainly push for NPB ace Roki Sasakiwho would probably be the fifth starter if he went to LA. Even if Sasaki signs elsewhere, the Dodgers could pursue him Garrett Crochet on the offseason trade market and/or continue to add starting pitching at the deadline.
Of course, the ability to stockpile this kind of rotational talent is a reflection of the Dodgers' financial power. While other front offices share their general approach of prioritizing value creation over sustainability, few ownership groups are willing to absorb LA's expenses. Under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers had generally shied away from throwing splashes, but that changed over the past calendar year. This is their third nine-figure pitching investment since last offseason (fourth including Ohtani). They signed Yamamoto for $325 million and extended Glasnow to a contract that included $110 million in new money.
MLBTR ranked Snell as the second-best starting pitcher in the class predicted a five-year, $160 million contract. The real value of the deal is right there. The specific NPV will only be clear when the deferral structure is announced. The expected luxury tax increase of $32 million to $33 million suggests the deal will have a net present value in the range of $160 million to $165 million. That would be the second-largest luxury tax bill on LA's books, trailing only the approximate $46.1 million CBT figure from Ohtani's heavily deferred $700 million contract.
In any case, the deal will likely result in the Dodgers' competitive balance sheet tax exceeding $300 million. They will almost certainly end up in the fourth and final penalty tier, which starts at $301 million. The Dodgers face the highest escalation penalties if they pay the tax in at least three consecutive seasons. The Snell deal itself will cost the Dodgers about $25 million to $30 million in taxes as it catapults them from the middle of the second penalty bracket to the start of the highest tax bracket. Future expenses will be taxed at the maximum tax rate of 110%.
It's a big signing, but one the Dodgers are well-positioned to make. They get away from the increase in sales that comes with a World Series win. More importantly, the structure of Ohtani's contract allows the Dodgers to continue amassing talent. During the Ohtani deal There was no end to the luxury taxFrom a pure payroll perspective, there is a huge benefit. Paying the NL MVP a $2 million salary for the next nine seasons is a big reason they can continue to bring in big money in the short term.
Snell missed it Corbin Burnes and before Max Fried as the top starter of this year's class. Not only did Snell fit the Dodgers' general preference for high-ceiling arms, but he also had the advantage of not being charged draft compensation. He is the only one of the top three starters who did not receive a qualifying offer. Snell had received the QO during his first free agent trip, so the Giants couldn't make the offer this time. Burnes and Fried each declined a qualifying offer and would have cost the Dodgers their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft as well as $1 million from their '26 international amateur bonus pool.
Burnes and Fried will be the clear No. 1-2 options for the other teams seeking top-tier starting pitching. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported The Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles were also on Snell's offer tonight. They're all tied to the market's best starting players – Boston in particular – and should remain active on that front in the coming weeks.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that the Dodgers and Snell had a five-year contract shortly after the pitcher made the announcement on Instagram that he came to LA ESPN's Jeff Passan and Jorge Castillo first reported the $182 million guarantee. Fabian Ardaya from the sporty one reported that the deal included deferrals that would reduce the net present value to $32 million to $33 million per year. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times was first with the $52 million signing bonus fine sand had limited trade ban protection. MLB Network's Jon Morosi reported the lack of an opt-out clause. Jon Heyman of the New York Post initially reported on the existence of an allocation premium Harris passed on at $5 million.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
