The market for starting pitching this winter has moved a little faster than the rest of left-handed free agency so far Blake Snell And Yusei Kikuchi Both have already found a new home with the Dodgers and Angels, respectively. However, this year's pitching market is notable for its wide selection of quality arms, and there are still plenty of solid pitchers available. A unique feature of this year's class is that the vast majority of top-tier and even mid-tier starters have received qualifying offers. Snell and Kikuchi were both exceptions to this, and other exceptions such as Jack Flaherty And Nathan Eovaldi remain on the table, but the majority of mid-rotation or better arms available this winter are tied to draft pick compensation.
The number of QO pitchers is helped by the fact that three somewhat surprising arms were extended to the QO this winter. These three pitchers are Luis Severino, Nick PivettaAnd Nick Martínez. While Martinez chose to accept the QO and sign a one-year deal with the Reds worth more than $21 million, both Pivetta and Severino chose to decline the QO and instead accept a multi-year deal in free agency. With both pitchers already on the wrong side of 30, this is a defensible decision for both as this winter may represent their best opportunity to get a longer-term guarantee in free agency. Both pitchers have significant upside and could represent solid value for their new club if they reach their potential, but both also have glaring red flags on their profiles that could give teams pause.
Severino is no longer the pitcher he was in his early 20s, when he made two All-Star teams and emerged as the ace with a 3.13 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 66 starts from 2017 to 2019 the Yankees rotation claimed. Since that peak performance, the right-hander has missed nearly three entire regular seasons thanks to a lat strain that cost him most of 2019, followed by Tommy John surgery that wiped out 2020 and nearly his entire 2021 season. He was also bitten by the injury bug in his next two seasons, as he suffered another lat strain in 2022 and an oblique strain in 2023. In 2022, on the other hand, he mostly looked like himself with a 3.18 ERA when he was healthy enough to take the mound in 19 starts, but in 2023 his performance took a nosedive. In 89 1/3 innings in his final year as a Yankee, Severino posted a 6.65 ERA and a 6.14 ERA. That performance was 35% worse than league average and left him entering free agency last winter full of question marks.
The right-hander generally answered those questions after agreeing to a one-year deal with the Mets last winter. He enjoyed his first fully healthy season since 2018, making 31 starts and 182 innings. However, his results were significantly worse compared to his peak, as he posted an ERA of 3.91 (101 ERA+) and a FIP of 4.21, making him more of an average league pitcher than one that is in the able to lead a rotation. After striking out 28.8% of opponents and walking just 6.6% from 2017 to 2022, both numbers trended in the wrong direction this year as he struck out batters at a rate of 21.2% and walked 7.9%. who gave free passes to batsmen. However, he made up for it somewhat by posting his highest groundball rate in years at 46%, ranking 14th among qualified starters this year. Severino's fastball velocity isn't far from his peak, which could provide some optimism for a rebound, but it seems more likely that Severino will continue to function as a good third or fourth starter going forward.
In contrast, Pivetta was considered a promising expert in electrical engineering throughout his career. That hasn't changed as he turns 30, but he still hasn't put together the kind of high-quality, high-profile production that the stuff models have projected for him throughout his career. The right-hander had a season in 2024 that has become typical of him since he was traded from the Phillies to the Red Sox. In 145 2/3 innings, he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.07 FIP despite striking out 28.9% of opponents and walking just 6.1%. These ratios are actually better than Severino's numbers during his prime, but Pivetta is held back by a propensity to allow home runs.
He never allowed fewer than 20 long balls in a 162-game season, and 102 in his four years as a starter in Boston. That puts Kikuchi just one shy of the fifth-most in the league during that time Patrick Corbin, Jose Berrios, Aaron NolaAnd Jordan Lyles. Severino also allows his fair share of home runs, but when you factor in the fact that he threw nearly 40 more innings than Pivetta, the difference between his 23 home runs allowed this year and Pivetta's 28 home runs is huge. That being said, it's undeniable that Pivetta's high-octane stuff offers more potential than Severino at this point in his career; If a club has a pitcher-friendly stadium or has a plan to help Pivetta control his home run tendencies, it's easy to see why they might be tempted to roll the dice on the 31-year-old's side.
If you wanted to sign a right-back from the middle rotation to a multi-year deal this winter, would you prefer to lock in Severino's volume and quality in the middle rotation despite his long injury history? Or would you rather consider Pivetta's upward trajectory and more consistent health record despite a lack of volume and inconsistency from frequent home runs?
