While we have started to see some movement in the pitching market, with Blake Snell And Yusei Kikuchi Both come off the board this week, but we haven't seen a prominent hitter fall off the board yet. Part of this is simply due to the inherently slow pace of the MLB free agency structure, but there is certainly an element of that as well Juan Soto to maintain things to some extent. Fortunately, it doesn't look like this will be a drawn-out free agent saga that will last well into the new year.
Randy Miller of NJ Advance Media reported Earlier this week, five clubs had made offers to Soto: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. There have been some back-and-forth reports about whether offers from each have been formally submitted, but semantics aside, this quintet appears to be the top bidder for Soto at the moment.
Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports that Soto and agent Scott Boras have asked for initial offers to be submitted by Thanksgiving. So even if one of these clubs hasn't made a formal offer yet, it's probably only a matter of hours before that offer is made. Blum said there is growing belief that Soto could make a decision at or even before this year's winter meetings, which take place Dec. 8-11 in Dallas.
It should be noted that the current wave of offers is not a collection of “best and final” offers. With a free agent of this magnitude, there will be a lot of back and forth negotiations. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic Tweets that this first wave of offers is considered “provisional” and another round of offers is expected to follow next week. Talks are intensifying as teams are sorted out ahead of the winter meets. Kuty and Blum suggest that this game-changing offseason event is a likely end point for Soto's free agency.
Of the five known suitors, the Dodgers are perhaps the least likely. This may have been the case before Los Angeles finalized their five-year contract with Snelll last night – one that guarantees him $182 million (with some deferred salary, but also a huge $52 million pre-signing bonus). ESPN's Jeff Passan reported a few weeks ago that while the Dodgers will be in the mix, they aren't expected to pursue Snell at any cost. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic offered Last night, he expressed similar thoughts in his breakdown of the Snell deal, suggesting that while the Dodgers will of course remain informed about where Soto's offer will land, they could also simply try to match the price to more serious bidders in New York, Boston, and… To drive New York up Toronto.
For this purpose, The New York Post's Jon Heyman wrote last night that the Red Sox are actually very serious about pursuing Soto. They tried to convince Soto of the organization's history of prominent left-handed hitters who have taken advantage of Fenway Park's Green Monster and also hired franchise icons Pedro Martínez And David Ortiz to make the free agent slugger aware of the team's history with the celebrated stars from Soto's native Dominican Republic.
In the meantime, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe adds that the Sox don't view Soto and adding a top-of-the-rotation arm as an either/or scenario. Even if they manage to sign Soto, the Sox would do so while also looking for a top starter. Red Sox President Sam Kennedy does signaled readiness to exceed the luxury tax, and Speier notes that the Sox don't view the $241 million tax threshold as some kind of hard cap. They are currently $70 million below that level. according to RosterResource's estimates.
It is not yet clear whether other clubs could take part towards the end of the application process. Phillies owner John Middleton stated earlier this winter that he didn't mind being a “stalking horse” on Soto, and there were reports that the Phils planned to meet with him at some point, but USA Today's Bob Nightengale reported Monday that the Phillies haven't even spoken to Boras specifically about Soto. The Giants have been an oft-speculated winter suitor, but they have not yet met with Soto and reports have since indicated that will be the case could actually cut payroll rather than spending as aggressively as some expected.
