The Red Sox are looking to improve their rotation this winter, but it remains to be seen exactly how that will play out. You have previously been tied together to top free agents like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried And Blake Snellas well as Trade Candidate Garrett Crochet.
This week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Sox actually want one of these top free agents. MassLive's Sean McAdam reports that the Sox continue to monitor the pitching market as they make commitments Juan Soto. They had some interest in left-handers Yusei Kikuchialthough it's unclear how strong that interest was and he now has an agreement with the Angels. As for Crochet, McAdam reports that the Sox have stepped up their game there and an unknown club has become “very aggressive” lately.
Very early in the offseason, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow said The club is aiming to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation and these aspirations are all in line with that goal. Burnes, Fried and Snell all have long histories of major league success, with Burnes receiving one Cy Young Award and Snell receiving two. Fried doesn't have the hardware, but has a 3.07 earned run average in just under 900 career innings. Crochet has only just moved into the rotation in 2024, but has done so with aplomb, posting a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and one ground ball in 146 innings rate of 45.1% achieved.
Any of these pitchers would be a nice upgrade for Boston or any other club, although it will also make them very popular. In addition to the Sox, these pitchers were affiliated with clubs such as the Blue Jays, Orioles, Yankees, Dodgers and Padres. There are plenty of other clubs that also make sense, even if they aren't explicitly linked to these pitchers in rumors.
If the Sox got away with two of these pitchers, it would make for a pretty aggressive offseason, but that's exactly what the club has signaled. Both Breslow and CEO Sam Kennedy have made comments suggesting the club plans to move boldly alongside Kennedy this winter said recently that the payment of the competition balance tax is on the table. Many of the club's fans will bring up chairman Tom Werner's “full throttle” comments from last year, pointing out that they didn't precede much action last winter, but the club is being more specific this year. Kennedy has repeatedly said that the goal is to field a club capable of winning 90 to 95 games and winning the league.
One way to do this is to spend money on free agents. RosterResource estimates the club will have a payroll of $138 million in 2025, well below the $184 million spent in 2024, again a decline from spending in the previous decade. RR puts the club's CBT figure at $171 million, which is $70 million below the lowest threshold.
There's plenty of room there for two notable contracts, although of course successfully signing Soto would completely change the calculus assuming he'll sign a record deal. That being said, big contracts for two of the big free agent starters is a viable outcome. As part of MLBTRs Top 50 Free Agents In the post, Burnes, Fried and Snell were each projected to have contracts with an average annual value between $26 million and $32 million. Putting two of them on Boston's payroll wouldn't even put them on the CBT line. They'll probably also expand the bullpen and perhaps the position player group, but with a willingness to push the envelope, all sorts of options could be on the table for them.
From a financial perspective, Crochet would be far cheaper, with the biggest cost coming in the form of potential capital. Having spent so much of his career as a substitute or injured player, he only has two years left in control of the club, but was unable to increase his salary very much through the arbitration process. He only earned $800,000 in 2024 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz expects a raise to just $2.9 million in 2025. Another raise would be due in 2026, before he is scheduled to become a free agent.
Two years as a top pitcher for that much money is a huge value, which is why Crochet is very popular in trade discussions. The Red Sox have a strong farm system and could certainly get a deal done if they wanted, although based on McAdam's report, it appears a mystery club beat them to it.
For now, the rotation projects will be led in Boston Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello And Cutter Crawford. Houck had a breakout season in 2024, but he may have run out of energy as he had a 2.54 ERA in the first half and a 4.23 ERA in the second. Bello and Crawford each had good but not great seasons, each finishing with an ERA in the 4.35 to 4.50 range. Lucas Giolito And Garrett Whitlock could be there in 2025, but these are relatively unknown quantities at this point as everyone will have had internal braces surgery in 2024.
Strengthening this group would improve Boston's chances in 2025 while outperforming players like him Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts And Quinn Priest to deep roles, either in the minors or in the big league bullpen.
The interest in Kikuchi suggests the Sox are open to some middle-class options as well. Now that Kikuchi is gone, several other names could be considered for similar deals Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Severino and old friend Nick Pivetta.
The qualifying offer will likely be a factor depending on who the Sox ultimately sign. Snell, Eovaldi and Flaherty were ineligible to receive a QO, Snell and Eovaldi because they had already received one, and Flaherty because he was traded midway through the season. Burnes, Fried, Manaea and Severino declined QOs, meaning the Sox would have to forgo their second-best pick in next year's draft and $500,000 in international bonus pool space to sign them. Pivetta declined a QO from the Red Sox, meaning they would receive a compensatory pick just before the third round if he signed elsewhere, although they would not receive that pick if they ultimately re-signed him.
