3:10 p.m: The Rangers have also been told they are out of the running, it is said Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Diamondbacks have never met with Sasaki and will not be a target, according to the statement John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix.
2:56 p.m: The Mets were also informed that they are out of contention, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
2:35 p.m: The Yankees were told they were right-handed Roki Sasaki will not sign with them, reported Jack Curry from Yes Network. This is the second team after the Giants that is reportedly out was also told that they will not be Sasaki's target. SNY's Andy Martino adds that the Mets aren't expected to sign him either, although it's unclear whether they, like the Giants and Yankees, have been given an outright rejection. As for the teams still in the mix, Sasaki reportedly met with the Padres in San Diego, according to a recent report Dennis Lin, Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That was after his last meeting with the Blue Jays in Toronto.
Sasaki has been on the radar of MLB clubs for years, but his situation became very interesting when it became clear that he would be heading to North America this winter. Because he is not yet 25 years old, he is considered an amateur under MLB's international signing rules. This makes a huge difference in his earning power and opens up the possibility for him to potentially sign with any club.
According to the international bonus pool system, each club has a cap on how much bonus money it can give to international amateurs. This year's pools range from $5 million to $8 million. By and large, the larger clubs have the smaller pools and vice versa. Teams can trade for more pool money, but cannot add more than 60% of their original pool allocation.
The Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki's Nippon Professional Baseball Club, are also owed a posting fee. However, the value of this fee will be a percentage of his signing bonus and will not be a large amount either. According to NPB booking rules, the fee is 20% of the first $25 million of a deal, 17.5% of the next $25 million and 15% of additional expenses. Since Sasaki is limited by the pool system, his deal will result in a modest bonus, with the booking fee being 20%.
If Sasaki had waited until he was 25, he would have been considered a professional and could have signed a contract for any amount. This is the route Yoshinobu Yamamoto accepted and ultimately secured a $325 million deal from the Dodgers.
One can argue about who is the better pitcher between Yamamoto and Sasaki, but the point is that there is huge potential in bringing Sasaki on board for such a small investment. Teams that don't typically sign top free agents may become theoretical candidates, while the bigger clubs have high payrolls and competition balance tax concerns, making them also of great interest.
By coming to North America now, Sasaki has apparently shown that maximizing his short-term earnings is not his top priority. Since every club now has approximately the same opportunity to offer him a bonus, he should focus on non-financial criteria when making his decision. It could come down to geography, a club's reputation in pitching development, or perhaps a team's long-term competitive prospects. His agent, Joel Wolfe, said the plan is for teams to pitch before the holidays. After the holidays, Sasaki would then travel to visit the hometowns of certain clubs.
A decision must be made soon. Sasaki can't officially sign until January 15th, when the new pool year begins, but he also has to sign by January 23rd, when his posting window closes. With only a few days left, it appears he is narrowing the field.
Both the Yankees and the Mets allegedly met with Sasaki in December, but it appears he will not be coming to New York to join either club. Both teams already have plenty of rotation options, although they would certainly have welcomed the issue of adding Sasaki to the mix and pushing players even further. The Yankees already feel so good about their pitching depth that they are reportedly shopping around Marcus Stroman.
Perhaps signing Sasaki wouldn't have increased the urgency to trade Stroman all that much. MLB teams often use six-man rotations when using a Japanese pitcher, as starters in the NPB typically pitch once a week, as opposed to the five-day rotation in North America. This is a moot point now, but the Yanks still plan to start the year with a strong group that includes Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Luis Gil And Clarke Smithwhy Stroman is available.
The Mets have more uncertainty in their rotation, but still have plenty of arms to potentially fill out their rotation. Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning And Tylor Megill are all possibilities. There are question marks around many of these names, but that's eight viable candidates of varying degrees for five rotation spots.
Many observers consider the Dodgers and Padres to be the two most likely landing spots, so it's not particularly surprising that San Diego is still in the mix. No one can be sure what Sasaki's priorities are, but it has been suggested that the club's west coast location and strong performance in recent years work in his favor, as does Sasaki's friendship with him Yu Darvish.
As The Athletic and others have pointed out, the Padres could probably use Sasaki more than any other club. Although they are aware of financial constraints, they have many gaps to fill, which pleases the players Luis Arraez, Dylan Stop it, Jake Cronenworth And Robert Suarez was in the trade rumors this winter. It would be tremendously helpful for them to add a pitcher of Sasaki's caliber at such a discounted price.
As of now, rotation projects include Darvish, Cease and Michael Kingwith many question marks beyond that. Adding Sasaki would give the Padres a very strong front four, but it could also perhaps increase the chances of the Friars trading Cease for players who are cheaper and more controllable but less proven.
It is still unclear which team Sasaki will choose and why. As mentioned, the Jays are still a possibility based on Sasaki's recent trip to Toronto. The Padres are obviously there too. The Athletic mentions that the Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs and Mariners are clubs believed to be in the mix. It is unknown whether Sasaki will visit any of these other clubs, but the solution is coming soon and more information may be revealed in the coming days.