Two of the greatest fighters in UFC history return to the Octagon after long layoffs as Jon Jones defends the heavyweight championship against two-time former champion Stipe Miocic UFC 309 main event.
Jones defeated Ciryl Gane in March 2023 to win the championship, his heavyweight debut and his first fight since early 2020. A fight with Miocic was then scheduled for that November, but Jones suffered a chest injury that forced the fight to be postponed. This postponement also extended a long layoff for Miocic, who has not fought since a knockout loss to Francis Ngannou in March 2021.
Despite the layoffs and the rise of other, potentially more worthy title contenders, Jones vs. Miocic represents a clash between the most successful heavyweight champion (Miocic) and the light heavyweight champion (Jones), and will attract a lot of attention for that fact alone. The Betting odds are leaning heavily toward Jones retaining the title at Madison Square Garden.
After going 1-4 with our best bets for UFC 308, we're at 26-33 for the year. It's been a tough year for our selection, but we hope we can finish the year well with UFC 309.
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Let's take a look at our picks for the best bet for each main card fight at UFC 309.
Mauricio Luffy vs. James Llontop
Mauricio Luffy via KO/TKO/DQ (-150)
Luffy is an extremely accurate striker from the Fighting Nerds camp. He defeated Jamie Mullarkey in the first round at UFC 301 with a flying knee and some follow-up punches, securing a big statement win in his UFC debut. Llontop, meanwhile, is on a brutal two-fight losing streak. He was a clear favorite against Chris Padilla in April, but missed weight and was submitted in the first round. Llontop suffered a split decision loss to Viacheslav Borshchev in August. Llontop was hit by several large shots in this fight, and if it happened again it would spell disaster for Luffy. Llontop is tough enough that going under 1.5 rounds (+140) isn't as tempting as simply taking Luffy to get the knockout somewhere before the final bell.
Viviane Araujo vs Karine Silva
Fight for Distance: Yes (-225)
Silva is a good finisher and has finished in 17 of her 18 professional wins, but Araujo isn't easily fazed. Araujo was stopped once in her career, and that happened long before her UFC career. Silva is expected to get the win and hand Araujo her second straight loss and fourth in her last five fights, but Araujo is tough and has enough tricks up his sleeve to make Silva work for it in all three rounds. Silva is +100 on his decision, which is an appealing line, but we provide a small buffer against an upset by simply taking the fight to go the distance.
Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
Under 1.5 rounds (-175)
Nickal is one of the big favorites in this game and for good reason. He's the UFC's powerhouse talent, touted as the future of the sport, and in Craig faces a man who has suffered some brutal losses in recent years. Craig has the ability to lock anyone in a submission and force a tap, which is why he is coming off a victory over former light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill. So maybe there's a chance this could prove to be a trap fight for Nickal. Nickal should face Craig in this fight, but we can play it a little safe by taking the round under 1.5 in case Nickal's aggression gets him caught up in a surprise submission from Craig.
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
over 1.5 rounds (-105)
Both fighters are largely of the “finish or be done” school, which is why the fight is +550 over the distance. The fact that they have fought once before, with Chandler badly shaking Oliveira in the first round and then Oliveira shaking and finishing Chandler in the second, means they both know how dangerous the other man is. I believe the familiarity will lead to a slower first round than many expect before the second round gets underway. Add in the fact that both fighters know how important a win is, as a loss means the end of Oliveira's chances of returning to the title or Chandler's increasingly fading dream of fighting Conor McGregor, and I'm banking on a slow start a furious end.
Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
over 2.5 rounds (+114)
When you think about this fight, it's hard to think about this weekend's other big fight, Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul. Like this strange boxing match, a lot depends on how interested and skilled both fighters are. Is Jones in the mood to give it his all, like he did when he defeated Ciryl Gane to win the heavyweight title, or are we seeing the more risk-averse version of “Bones,” who was eager to safely out-fight his opponents and the Winning a fight over the distance? And what about Miocic after being out of action since March 2021? There are a lot of unknowns ahead of Jones vs. Miocic, aside from the fact that Jones is a heavy favorite to win. I expect Jones to be more cautious about Miocic's strength and all-around ability than Gane, and that Miocic will also be more competent on the ground than Gane when defeated. This should result in the fight going past the halfway point of Round 3.
