There are 100 million completely guaranteed reasons why this might not happen, but the Hawks have to send Kirk Cousins to the sideline and start Michael Penix Jr.
Of course, let's start with the numbers as justification. In the last three games, all Atlanta losses, Cousins has thrown six interceptions without a touchdown, averaged 6.96 yards per attempt and led an offense that didn't score more than 20 points.
The abysmal quarterback play was accompanied by an uptick in Atlanta's defense. The Falcons have been in eighth place since the start of Week 11 Expected points added per game in non-garbage time situations. In the most recent defeat, this unit was dismissed Justin Herbert five times! They came into the game with five sacks this season! And the Falcons still couldn't win.
In the fourth quarter alone, Cousins has a 56.6 rating, which comes from two touchdowns and seven interceptions on 61% completion and 6.02 yards per attempt. Nine of Atlanta's 12 games so far have been within one score heading into game four.
This is neither a schematic problem nor is it caused by random moves.
Cousins has gone from a reliable, highly efficient pocket passer with limited upside to an immobile quarterback whose weak arm and poor decision-making have become obvious liabilities.
As the children say, Cousins is cooked.
When completion percentage and yards per attempt are checked, it appears that Cousins is on-brand. During his six-year stay in Minnesota, he completed 67.8% of his throws for 7.6 yards per attempt. This year in Atlanta, his completion percentage is 67.4% and his yards per attempt average is 7.6.
But the film tells a completely different story.
Three of his four interceptions came in the 17:13 home defeat against the Chargers were of the brutal variety.
These types of decisions and especially the lack of strength in the hamstrings Insult today. Cousins acts like a quarterback of the past. His improvisation skills were never his strong point. But now the speed his arm can generate has dropped far below the level required to score even on prescient throws.
Defensive backs are too fast. Windows close in an instant. This means that Cousins must drastically release the ball before a receiver is in his place, increasing the difficulty of the pass to an extraordinarily high level.
Ironically, Penix's gun cannon is probably a big reason why this shocked the Falcons World by selecting him No. 8 overall in April after giving Cousins $100 million fully guaranteed in March.
And in two of those interceptions against the Chargers, arm strength was the deciding factor. And they're not the only ones.
Luckily, for all of his lame quarterback play, the Falcons are still atop the NFC South standings at 6-6, with the division record tiebreaker at 6-6 privateer. And that “lead” feels tenuous.
The Falcons' last five contests are as follows – at Vikingsat robbervs. Giantsat Commandersvs. Panthers.
Can they get to nine wins? Will that be enough to win the division?
As much as these should/could be the Falcons' realistic goals in 2024, they still represent Atlanta's ceiling… that is, if Cousins remains the starting quarterback.
None of this is to say that Penix is guaranteed to be better, although I suspect he will be.
Cousins' biggest selling point has long been: You know what you're getting from him. And now that selling point is exactly the reason to trade him for a much more physically gifted rookie.
