In the last calendar year the Dolphins I took a ride that was both excruciating and exhilarating. Let's start early in December 2023. After Week 13, after a three-game winning streak, they were 9-3, comfortably three games ahead Bills at the top of the AFC East with the tiebreaker in hand. Tua Tagovailoa came third in in passer rating (104.4) and third in passing yards (3,236). Raheem Mostert led football in rushing scores with 14.
That's the exciting part.
Then a disaster on “Monday Night Football” against the inferior team Titans. To spare Dolphins fans the minute details, Miami blew a two-touchdown lead in the final five minutes and lost 28-27 to Tennessee. Excruciating.
After back-to-back wins following the prime-time collapse, the Dolphins were pulverized by the competition Ravens and lost at home to the Bills in the final regular season game of the 2023 schedule, slipping to No. 6 in the AFC playoffs. A completely flat performance in frigid temperatures at Arrowhead Stadium ended Miami's season much sooner than it seemed just a month earlier.
Things didn't go much better this season, as Tagovailoa suffered another concussion in a Week 2 loss to the Bills and the Dolphins went 1-3 during his recovery. The season seemed to have sunk.
But since Tagovailoa's return, the dynamic offense of 2023 has returned. The Dolphins lost Tagovailoa's first two starts after returning from injury, but Miami scored 27 points in each contest and the club's expected points added on offense in those two weeks combined ranked second on the season .
Back-to-back wins have kept the Dolphins alive at 4-6 heading into a home game against the Dolphins Patriots in Week 12. We're all wondering now: Can Miami clinch a playoff spot?
This club, like any other in the NFL, relies on its quarterback play, especially because Tagovailoa's unique predictive passing skills are tailor-made for Mike McDaniel's complex timing offense.
So let's look at how Tagovailoa performed in some key advanced metrics last year as the Dolphins won 10 games and advanced to the postseason.
2023 | 76.1% (15th) | 5.8% (T7.) | 3.4% (T14th highest) | 8.1 (3rd) | 19.0% (21st) |
Quite a season. Even when down 3-2, Tagovailoa's performances were fantastic. The 2023 season ended with the Dolphins quarterback leading the NFL with 4,624 passing yards, a year after leading the league in passer rating. Despite his athletic and arm strength limitations, Tagovailoa had established himself as the ideal leader of McDaniel's offense.
Importantly for this comparison, his average target depth was 8.1 yards, the 21st highest in football.
Here's where Tagovailoa ranks in the same categories now in Week 12.
2024 | 80.9% (1st) | 3.5% (24th) | 3.2% (T18.) | 7.5 (T12.) | 25.6% (35th) |
He was more accurate as a thrower, but the game-changing throws weren't nearly as frequent – a nearly 2.0% difference is significant – and Tagovailoa took sacks under pressure much more often.
In short, he wasn't that effective.
Additionally, Tagovailoa's average depth of target is 6.0 yards, the lowest among 40 qualified quarterbacks.
I'm making this year-over-year comparison because 2023 provided a baseline for the level of play the Dolphins needed from Tagovailoa to reach the postseason, and right now he's falling short of that level.
Of course, not every game or season rests entirely on a quarterback's shoulders. Here's how Miami's defense performed in 2023 compared to this season.
2023 | -0.032 (15th) | 43.2% (15th) | -0.006 (19th) | 44.5% (18th) |
| 2024 | -0.013 (13th) | 43.2% (14th) | -0.027 (12th) | 44.1% (18th) |
It may be difficult to spot the differences here, but overall, Miami's defense has been essentially the same over the last two seasons to date. Crucially, it was stingier in 2024 in scenarios with no garbage time, which is the better measure of a unit's quality.
This increasing defensive differential suggests that if this game continues, the Dolphins will be able to rely on their defense a little more than they did in 2023, which is helpful given Tagovailoa's decline in efficiency.
And here is the EPA rank per game (excluding garbage time) of the defenses still on Miami's schedule.
- Week 12 – vs. Patriots (29.)
- Week 13 – at packer (15.)
- Week 14 – vs. Jets (19.)
- Week 15 – at Texan (1.)
- Week 16 – vs. 49ers (6.)
- Week 17 – at Tan (23.)
- Week 18 – at Jets (19.)
And where those same teams rank in the EPA on offense per game:
- Week 12 – vs. Patriots (27th)
- Week 13 – at Packers (3rd)
- Week 14 – vs. Jets (18.)
- Week 15 – at Texans (14th)
- Week 16 – vs. 49ers (12th)
- Week 17 – at Browns (30th)
- Week 18 – at Jets (18.)
The average defense against Tagovailoa and Co. is set at an average goals conceded of around 16. Miami's defensive unit's offense averages just above 17th. Neither has a clear advantage over the other. And the Dolphins don't play by averages.
Having already suffered six defeats, they can probably afford to lose just one more contest to have a relatively good chance of making the playoffs again. On paper, these dates in Houston and at home against the 49ers are clearly the toughest tests. The game against the Packers in Green Bay isn't a walk in the park either.
Of course, either Tagovailoa and/or Miami's defense could play better late in the season. A possible boost could come in the form of Bradley Chubb Returns in Week 14 at home against the Jets. If he can do that, Chubb should bolster the pass rush, which currently ranks 17th in the league with a pressure rate of 34.4%.
Considering how they've played so far, the Dolphins will need improvement in either Tagovailoa's play or defense to make the playoffs, especially after the hole the team dug for itself while Tagovailoa was injured . I envision a run for the final wildcard spot. We know Tagovailoa and McDaniel are playoff-caliber together.
The AFC is deeper than it has been in recent years. Based on what this rejuvenated Dolphins team has shown after Tagovailoa's return to the lineup, I don't know if Miami can play well enough to go 6-1 and get into the postseason. I do think the Dolphins will make it interesting.
