Happy Thanksgiving! It's always a special holiday for Detroit Lions fans, but this year it's even grander.
As I sip my morning coffee on this Lions game day, the Lions own the best record in the NFL. Okay, technically the Kansas City Chiefs are also 10-1, but the Lions are currently No. 32 on the NFL's waiver wire.
Dan Campbell's Lions are the best team in the league heading into Week 13. They have won nine straight games thanks to a balance between the No. 1-ranked offense and the No. 2-ranked defense in the nfl.
It's been a long time since the Lions won on Thanksgiving. The Chicago Bears, today's opponent, were responsible for ruining the day for the Lions in three of these seven consecutive defeats. Will the Lions seek revenge on the day Detroit is the nfl's rare focal point?
Why I believe the Lions will win
Defense.
Okay, I probably have to say more than one word. But everything good about this matchup comes from Aaron Glenn's struggling but still incredibly effective defensive unit.
The Lions defense has been playing some great team football lately. The cohesion and communication between the line, supporters and secondary was excellent, regardless of staff. Glenn has found the sweet spot for his impact players, namely DT Alim McNeill and safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph.
All three have big games ahead of them, especially McNeill. He has thrived as an interior pass rusher, and in this matchup McNeill is drawing a subpar GCG package from the Bears. Individually, they aren't bad players, but the combination of Teven Jenkins, Matt Pryor and Coleman Shelton plays with little chemistry or coordination.
The Lions' biggest matchup advantage in this game comes from their big guys on defense, which also includes DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, Levi Onwuzurike and Za'Darius Smith. Power wins against the Bears. Talented power dominates.
The target of Detroit's aggression is rookie QB Caleb Williams. The latest in a long line of quarterback solutions from the Bears has at times shown why he was the No. 1 overall pick in April's draft in Detroit. Williams has also proven his vocal critics right (at least for now) with erratic decision-making, an inability to consistently win in the structure of the offense, and a crazy tendency to hold the ball for far too long.
The return of Terrion Arnold will make it easier for the Lions man to cover from outside, but the loss of Carlton Davis will hurt. The opportunism of Joseph and Branch at safety, playing behind a pass rush that should be effective and a run defense that should stymie old friend D'Andre Swift, makes it difficult for the Bears to score much without Help from further injuries, referees or others trust only a common rest day from too many Lions. Branch got out of his system last week and I expect a big rebound game here.
Additionally, Chicago is simply not a well-coached offense. The Windy City airwaves and blogosphere are overflowing with calls for coach Matt Eberflus' head. They've already fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, but things are still heating up thanks to a plan that doesn't necessarily take advantage of the depth of their top talent. Clock management, play-calling decisions, cold starts – they are all still big problems for the Bears.
On the other side of the ball, the Lions should be able to attack early and often against the Bears' defensive front. Chicago has some very good talent up front, but their spacing and attacking strategy leaves them vulnerable to disciplined offensive players who won't be deterred from passing the ball on 2nd-and-10 or 3rd-and-7. The Lions' offense, with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs operating behind a solid line, has no such problems.
Then there is coaching. Eberflus is in the hot seat. Campbell should receive more consideration than himself in the NFL Coach of the Year vote, and all three coordinators – Glenn, OC Ben Johnson and special teams coach Dave Fipp – are at or near the top of their respective positions. The Lions coaching staff is a well-oiled machine. Bears personnel spill oil over smoldering kindling.
Don't think for a second that the Lions coaches don't know how long it's been since this team won that day. Chicago may be an inferior opponent statistically and record-wise, but finishing off the loss on Thanksgiving will mean something to them. This also applies to defeating a division opponent.
What worries me about bears
A lot of what concerns me about the Bears has more to do with the Lions and the rampant injuries throughout the roster. If Detroit were at full strength, I would expect them to win by more than 20 points.
Unfortunately, this isn't even close to the complete talent pool for Detroit. Left tackle Taylor Decker is out, as is starting outside CB Carlton Davis. The loss of Decker is huge because the basic idea of the Chicago defense is to pressure the quarterback with only a rushing four. Decker's move to the next OT in line – be it Dan Skipper or Jamarco Jones, who was named to the practice squad – is significant.
Moving Penei Sewell from the right side to the left creates strength on the left side, but the Bears defense typically puts their best pass rusher, Montez Sweat, at right tackle. Much of the Lions' run blocking also relies on Sewell's search-and-destroy mobility and power from the right side. Either way, Decker is a big loss against the Bears.
With Davis missing on defense, Kindle Vildor, Khalil Dorsey and Emmanuel Moseley move up two spots on the leaderboard. Remember, just last Thursday, Detroit had rookie Ennis Rakestraw as CB4. Now he and Davis are out. The Lions depth CBs are tasked with controlling a very good 1-2-3 WR combination with DJ Moore, Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen. The safeties and LBs can't help much since TE Cole Kmet is a very good receiver, as is Swift at RB out of the backfield. Caleb Williams' running and improvisation skills also require your attention. Chicago's offense may be unpredictable and poorly coached, but they certainly have the ability to make some plays.
Back to the Bears defense. Goff fought them; 43 of 70, 393 yards, 3 TDs and 5 INTs in two games last year. Much like the Buccaneers did in Detroit's only loss this year, the Bears are really good at applying quick pressure by attacking with just four while pushing the middle of the field. That's where Goff attacks best, and the Bears are really good at taking him. They too have opportunistic defenders; Eight different Bears have INTs and 10 have forced fumbles on the season. Considering Graham Glasgow's recent struggles at left guard and Decker's absence on the wing, the Bears D could be a real problem for Goff and the Lions. Especially when Ben Johnson gets impatient and overly complicated with his play instructions and designs – like what happened in Week 2 against the Buccaneers…
Prediction of the final result
I think the Lions have enough talent to survive a spirited challenge from a Bears team that may have a deadly game on its hands. The Lions win 20-17 on a field goal by Jake Bates on Detroit's final drive.
