For the second year in a row, we'll be treated to Detroit Lions football on a Thursday instead of the traditional Sunday kickoff. As in the Week 13 Thanksgiving matinee against the Chicago Bears, the Lions will face a division rival in a home game this Thursday.
This time it's Thursday Night Football against the Green Bay Packers. Yes, those people from across Lake Michigan. The place where the lions roared to a 24-14 victory Five weeks ago that wasn't nearly as close as the final result suggests.
As I sip my morning coffee in the midst of a winter storm warning that has closed schools and businesses all around me, the chill of the specter of tonight's game is unavoidable. This is a big problem for both teams.
Why I believe the Lions will win
The running game starring Sonic and Knuckles, better known as Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, continues to do exceptionally well. The Lions offense is able to control the flow of the game because it can operate so effectively in any situation. On 1st and 10, Montgomery gets eight. 3rd-and-3, Gibbs shoots for 17.
The ability to consistently generate big plays from the run game is huge for Detroit. It also has a huge impact on the opposing defense. The Packers' linebackers and safeties need to be alert to the possibility of Gibbs running outside on a simple zone run or Montgomery running through the first tackle and charging at them at full speed, often with Penei Sewell and Kevin Zeitler still leading the way, well over the line beyond the border. This is in addition to their potential coverage duties against Sam LaPorta, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and even Tim Patrick, who has become more involved in the passing offense since the first meeting.
Detroit may have to focus on outscoring the Packers in this game thanks to all the attrition on defense. Jared Goff and his merry gun crew can do it, and do it unapologetically. This is a real advantage for the Lions; You've done it before and you can do it again. The Lions know it, but the Packers know it too, and that puts a lot of pressure on a young, error-prone Green Bay team to try to keep up. Detroit mastered the week nine game in Green Bay with ease.
Special teams certainly deserve some recognition for the Lions. Punter Jack Fox is having an incredible season. In a golden age of NFL punting, Fox remains the gold standard for consistency when turning the field. The coverage units have also remained strong despite major personnel changes due to injuries. Coordinator Dave Fipp makes his units play as well as anyone else.
Defensively, there is a “revenge game” for some key Lions – perhaps Detroit’s two most important defenders. Za'Darius Smith has been the team's best pass rusher since joining the team. Before joining the Lions, Smith spoke openly about how badly he wanted to come to Detroit to play against the Packers, his old team. Smith's tenure with Green Bay didn't end well, and he's willing to take out some frustrations.
Safety Brian Branch had to watch much of the Week 9 win from the locker room afterward being ejected for a questionable hit. Branch's ability to make big plays and be a versatile wild card on the back end is an integral part of whatever coordinator Aaron Glenn wants to do on defense, and now Branch has an advantage for him. This should work out very well for Detroit.
What worries me about the Packers
Green Bay has played very strong football the last three weeks, winning all three games since the loss to Detroit. Their bye in Week 10 revitalized and refocused their offense, particularly with regards to ball security. Jordan Love played smarter, cleaner ball; Green Bay only had one giveaway in those three games.
Part of this is due to Josh Jacobs running the ball extremely well. He's the RB guy who has caused the Lions' defense some problems this year, and now Detroit's defense must try to slow him down without premium run defender DJ Reader and three of their top four LBs behind them. The reader's loss is great because the nose tackle is exceptionally good at keeping blockers away from Jack Campbell and all the backup linebackers surrounding him. Now it's up to Brodric Martin, who has played exactly two snaps all year. All of the line depth and all of the linebacking depth are completely new from the first meeting.
I give Glenn a lot of credit for keeping the Lions defense outstanding despite all the injuries. But all those bandages can only stretch so far before they snap, and I worry about that happening against a multi-talented Packers offense that has played largely flawlessly of late. Love has found some rhythm as the Packers lean on Jacobs and a better-than-advertised run blocking OL, and he has dangerous weapons in Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed. These guys may not be stars and they all have some inconsistencies in their games, but overall they're playing very well lately.
The Lions' patchwork defense has benefited from playing unpredictable QBs in Anthony Richardson and Caleb Williams, each playing behind an offensive line that isn't nearly as good as what they'll see against Green Bay. Given the last few weeks, it's unfair to lump Love in with those quarterbacks as well.
That has the potential for Green Bay to play with a lead, and that's a bit of a problem for the Lions' offense. Not having Taylor Decker move on could be very bad for Detroit. Decker wasn't missed all that much against Chicago and its no-nonsense pass-rush attack. Green Bay can run a lot more blitzes and wideouts than the Bears, and that's not a strength for Decker's replacement, Dan Skipper. As much as we love Skipper, he's also not nearly as run-blocking as Decker. With left guard Graham Glasgow also not playing well lately, I fear a more one-handed offense will struggle against a fast-paced, aggressive Packers defense.
Prediction of the final result
The Lions are rightfully the favorites to win, but I can't help but feel like the myriad injuries will finally catch up with the team tonight. Not having Decker and Reader is huge; I would choose the Lions if either of them played in Week 14. But they're not, and Green Bay is playing with such concentration that I don't think the Packers will give this advantage back.
Packers 29, Lions 21
