Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shad Khan recently chastised the offense “predictable.” Quarterback Trevor Lawrence was asked about that assessment and didn't necessarily disagree.
So what went wrong with the Jaguars offense that led to this predictability?
“Sometimes I think you can say that about other offenses, but I just think when you struggle with that, for us, it's like, no matter if certain plays were going, we weren't able to keep up, we weren't going our way or whatever “I've been passing the ball consistently and effectively over the last few years and I think that's really given us problems, to be honest,” Lawrence said via Sports Illustrated.
The Jaguars ranked in the bottom half of the NFL as a team in terms of yards per rush. From ESPN's In terms of run-block win rate, Jacksonville would rank just 25th.
There is a huge added burden on an offense when the running game is struggling. A lack of early down success puts the offense behind the sticks and in obvious passing situations.
At this point, the dreaded situations where the offense is faced with second and third balls to get back on track become predictable. In these scenarios, the defense knows a passing play is coming, so the defensive front holds its ears back while the secondary has the advantage in coverage – there are only so many routes that run on 3rd-and-9 able to get the offense over the sticks.
“It's hard to get everything else going when you're struggling. I think that's why you can see the predictability when that doesn't work and you have to rely on pushing the ball downfield or putting it in space,” Lawrence added. “I think you can maybe see some predictability there.”
On the other hand, a strong running game keeps the offense ahead of the sticks and in short down-and-distance situations where the entire playbook is at its disposal. On a 2nd-and-2, the offense can attack the entire field, stretching the defense, throwing it off balance and now creating even more unpredictability.
Both Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby will return to the running back position in 2025. However, the offensive line needs to be addressed, not only to bolster depth, but also to improve the running game, which will then help take some of the offense offloading the passing game.
