Sean McVay may be a progressive coach with some of his offensive concepts and strategies, but when it comes to fourth-round decisions, he isn't always as aggressive as he should be. Although he has improved in that area this season, he became conservative late in the Rams' 23-15 loss to the Dolphins on Monday night.
The piece in question? A four-and-goal from the 4-yard line with 6:34 to play. At that point, the Rams were down 20-9 and had all three timeouts. A field goal would have made it an eight-point game (again), with a strong chance the Rams would get the ball back thanks to their timeout allotment.
They got it back with 2:43 to play, but the problem is that the Dolphins added another field goal to extend their lead back to 11 points.
According to the analytics, the Rams would have increased their probability of victory if they had gone for fourth-and-4 instead of settling for a 22-yard field goal.
—> MIA (20) @ LA (9) <—
LA has 4th and 4th place at MIA 4, Q4 06:31Recommendation (STRONG): 👉 Go for it (+3.6 WP)
Actual Play: 👟🏈 J.Karty's 22-yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-E.Evans.– 4th Down Decision Bot (@ben_bot_baldwin)
After the game, McVay was asked if he was thinking about going for it on fourth down.
“I did, but because it was a two-possession game and what happened, it felt like it was thrown away,” he said. “I felt like the defense played really well there. But just because of the flow of the game, that’s what led to it being down to one possession.”
If the Rams hadn't converted, it's highly unlikely they would have come back to win. But they still didn't win, so it wouldn't have made any difference. Had they converted on fourth down and scored a touchdown, they could have made it a 20-16 (or 20-17) game.
In this scenario, giving up a field goal on the next drive would not have resulted in a two-possession game like Monday night. The Rams would still have been there and, in the worst case scenario, would have been seven points behind with a few minutes left.
It's always easy to second-guess decisions, but the Rams shouldn't have been so conservative in this situation. Scoring another field goal did little to help Los Angeles get back into the game.
