On the surface, it looks like the San Francisco 49ers' hunt for an NFC West title is over after their second straight loss in Week 13.
The Buffalo Bills defeated the 49ers 35-10 at Highmark Stadium, just a week after the Green Bay Packers beat them 38-10. Those two losses were preceded by a loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and after 12 games the 49ers are sitting alone in last place in the NFC West at 5-7.
With injuries piling up along with the losses, it's hard to believe that the 49ers have any real chance of winning the NFC West for the third straight year. Unfortunately, there is a chance.
The 49ers could win and finish 10-7, while the other clubs fall by the wayside and achieve worse results. San Francisco could even lose one of its final five teams and finish at 9-8 while the rest of the division finishes at 8-9 or worse.
But what if they end up tied up?
Here are a few different possibilities that might look:
San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
Week 14 vs. Chicago Bears: Win
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Rams: Win
Week 16 at Miami Dolphins: Win
Week 17 vs. Detroit Lions: Loss
Week 18 at the Arizona Cardinals: Win
Record: (9-8)
Note: We can flip the Dolphins and Lions games and it still works.
Seattle Seahawks (7-5)
Week 14 at the Arizona Cardinals: Loss
Week 15 vs. Green Bay Packers: Loss
Week 16 vs. Minnesota Vikings: Win
Week 17 at the Chicago Bears: Win
Week 18 at the Los Angeles Rams: Loss
Record: (9-8)
Note: The key for San Francisco is that the Seahawks lose to Arizona and then two of their last four.
Arizona Cardinals (6-6)
Week 14 vs. Seattle Seahawks: Win
Week 15 vs. New England Patriots: Win
Week 16 at the Carolina Panthers: Win
Week 17 at the Los Angeles Rams: Loss
Week 18 vs. San Francisco 49ers: Loss
Record: (9-8)
Note: The 49ers only need Arizona to beat Seattle. The rest doesn't matter.
Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
Week 14 vs. Buffalo Bills: Loss
Week 15 at the San Francisco 49ers: Loss
Week 16 at the New York Jets: Loss
Week 17 vs. the Arizona Cardinals: Win
Week 18 vs. Seattle Seahawks: Win
Record: (8-9)
Note: San Francisco needs the Rams to win the final two NFC West games unless Seattle stumbles and loses two to the NFC North. Then a Seahawks win over the Rams in Week 18 won't have much impact.
In this above situation, the 49ers would win the three-way tiebreaker with the Cardinals and Seahawks as they would have a 6-6 record in the conference. The three-way tiebreakers in the NFL begin with head-to-head matchups, but all teams split their division games, which also eliminates the division record tiebreaker. They also have the same record in games together, with each team finishing at 5-5 in their meetings together.
That makes the tiebreaker a conference record where the 49ers would somehow have the advantage. San Francisco would finish 6-6 against NFC teams in this scenario, while the Rams and Seahawks would both finish 5-7 and the 49ers would face both in a home playoff game on Wild Card Weekend as NFC West champions .
This scenario also works if one of the Seahawks or Cardinals loses an extra game or two and finishes at 8-9 or worse. San Francisco would still hold the tiebreaker over both clubs in a tiebreaker battle between two teams.
How about a 4-way tie?
If the Seahawks lose to both the Packers and Vikings and then beat the Rams in Week 18, while the Rams get wins over the Bills in Week 14 and the Jets in Week 16, it would give the 49ers a division win in a four-way tie. give a draw.
Unfortunately, these scenarios are very specific and don't offer much wiggle room due to the tiebreakers. Still, there's a little hope for the optimists looking for something to hold on to as week 14 begins.
