Ottawa Senators general manager Steve Staios has publicly stated that he has no intention of letting the team take a step back this summer. A few weeks into the summer, he has chipped away at that notion but has yet to fully build a better lineup. Ottawa is currently a weaker team on paper than they were when it exited the ice after a first-round sweep at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes. It’s possible that Staios goes on a heater and nets the team a few pieces to add to the NHL lineup, making this summer a success, but at the moment, things don’t look rosy.
The Brady Tkachuk hole in the Senators’ lineup is very difficult to ignore right now. You can’t simply replace his presence, emotion, or production. Tkachuk was a tone-setter for the Senators, their most difficult player to play against, and perhaps the only difficult part of playing in Ottawa, other than the commute to the Canadian Tire Centre. Ottawa did receive solid compensation for the 27-year-old in the form of four draft picks, three of which were first-rounders, but the Senators have not adequately replaced his departure.
The addition of William Eklund is a nice start, but he didn’t come cheap and won’t fill in for much of what Tkachuk brought to the table. It’s possible he has better hockey ahead of him than Tkachuk, when you factor in age and the regression that will surely start sooner for Tkachuk than for Eklund. You could also make a case that Eklund is a more complete player than Tkachuk, and some analytics support that (goals above replacement in the last two seasons, for one). Eklund is probably the better defensive player of the two and is much more of a play driver than Tkachuk, who relies more on brute force and battle to get his work done.
On top of Eklund, the remaining draft picks are also solid long-term additions, but they won’t give Ottawa a boost next season unless they are flipped in the interim for significant NHL talent. That’s where Ottawa will struggle, as they are constrained by the salary cap and probably can’t add another top-six forward, which they need. That player would slide into an offensive role, a leadership role, and perhaps a special-teams role. There is a lot of Tkachuk that hasn’t been replaced, and it’s a significant challenge to replace it piecemeal.
A problem for Ottawa, or perhaps the problem, is that they entered this offseason needing to add depth to their top six, and even with the addition of Eklund, they’re effectively back at square one. It’s unlikely that Ottawa will add to their top two lines this offseason unless they send money out the door at the same time.
There is also the question of what to do with Drake Batherson, who is eligible for an extension and is less than a year away from unrestricted free agency. Batherson has been a terrific offensive producer for the Senators, but given his body of work, it’s not crazy to think he could be a $9MM player going forward. Is that a number Ottawa is comfortable paying for an offensive player who doesn’t necessarily pay attention to the finer details away from the puck? It’s a question that will be answered in time, but even if Ottawa is leaning towards moving him, they simply don’t have the leverage right now because they’ve already had to move Tkachuk, and losing two scoring wingers would be trouble for a team, especially when Batherson just had a career year.
One positive for Ottawa is that they brought back veteran Claude Giroux, who should provide leadership, stability, and, most importantly, depth for the Senators. The delicate balance of the Senators’ forward group means that one or two injuries could expose a massive problem with the team’s depth up front. Ottawa isn’t exactly rich with forward prospects, but they wisely tapped into the forward free agency market and signed some tweeners who should be good AHL players and decent call-ups if the Senators find themselves in injury trouble. Philip Tomasino and Sammy Blais are the likely players to get those call-ups, and while they aren’t exactly impact players at this stage of their careers, they can provide reasonable NHL minutes for a low cost. Tomasino has shown glimpses in the past of being on the verge of a breakout, but he has never been able to put it together on a long-term basis.
Overall, the Senators haven’t taken a major step back this summer, but they haven’t exactly improved either, which, in a way, is admirable given that they had to move on from their captain earlier than they’d hoped. At the same time, Ottawa can ill afford to sit around and hope that internal improvements will lead to them taking their next steps. Ottawa has some good young players, but make no mistake, the time to compete for Stanley Cups is now, and the Senators don’t feel like a club that is ready to do that. Some folks might look at their lineup and the salary structure and say they have plenty of runway to win a cup in this competitive window. However, these are the Ottawa Senators, and they do have a history of losing star players earlier than they’d like, so there are no guarantees that everybody sticks around to see their whole run through.
Source: www.prohockeyrumors.com