It’s 1-1 in the 90th minute of the World Cup final and a chance falls to your star player. Who would you rather have on the end of it: Haaland, Mbappé, Kane or Messi?
Team most missed from the quarter-finals …
World Cup quarter-final predictions: will anyone derail France’s title bid? Some of our panel believe so …
With the World Cup down to eight teams, our writers assess who’s left, identify the biggest remaining threats to France and make calls on who will lift the trophy
Lionel Messi. As he proved in thrilling style against Egypt, Argentina’s No 10 still has magic in his boots even at the age of 39. While his penalty record of four from eight attempts is much worse than you’d expect, he is clinical when it matters most. EA
On a cold wet night in Stoke, I may be swayed to take Haaland. At this World Cup, I’m taking Messi. A sense of inevitability has been attached to him through Argentina’s first five games at this tournament – he’s scored in all of them – and who am I to argue that that wouldn’t continue on the biggest of stages. EB
Erling Haaland is averaging a goal every 14 touches at this tournament. He has scored on 38.9% of his shots, the best of any player who has at least 10 shots. If you’re looking for the person who’ll score the most spectacular goals, go with Messi. But if you want the best chance of getting the ball in the net, bang the drum and start rowing. BD
Right now, it’s Kylian Mbappé. Both he and Messi feel uniquely unsolvable and can bend games to their will. But I’ll take the younger man in the eighth game of a six-week slog. BAG
There’s a transcendental quality around Argentina, where Messi’s mere presence is enough to get any of his teammates to produce the best moment of their international careers when it’s needed. And he’s still pretty good at his own part, too. JR
Gotta be Messi. Even at his geriatric age, he hasn’t lost the ability to decide matches in a moment. He really wasn’t much of a factor for most of the proceedings against Egypt in the last 16 and, then, boom, there he was with the splendid half-volley. LS
Can I fudge this and say it depends what kind of chance? It it’s a penalty or a header, not Messi, otherwise definitely him. He gives that sense he is playing the game at a different pace to everybody else: quite apart from his technical ability, what sets him apart is his capacity to take the least difficult option to achieve the desired result in any circumstance. JW
While it was sad to see all three host nations eliminated in the last 16, Japan were a lot of people’s dark horses before the tournament and they showed why in a thrilling opening game against the Netherlands before bowing out after giving Brazil a scare in the last 32. With a more favourable draw, they would have been contenders for the last eight. EA
Colombia. They were fun to watch in the group stage – rarely has a goalless draw left me thinking, “Wow, this team could win a World Cup” in the way I did after they held Portugal. And then they were handed pretty favourable knockout pairings, with Ghana first and a Switzerland team missing Johan Manzambi. Their last-16 performance was disappointing, and it felt like they could have advanced had they taken a few more risks in regulation. I’ll also miss their fans: the scenes of Argentina v Colombia, two of the best-supported teams in global soccer, in Kansas City would have been incredible. EB
Many of the African teams – Cape Verde, Senegal, DR Congo, Egypt and Côte d’Ivoire – were fun to watch. You could make a case for the USA in the hopes that they would have found the form they showed in their first two games. But Mexico would have been guaranteed to entertain for another round or two. BD
It sure isn’t the United States. I’ll say the Netherlands. They never quite hit top gear and paid dearly for their negative tactics against Morocco, but the tournament feels smaller without their history, color and chaos still in the draw. BAG
Is it gauche to just say any of the co-hosts? Every tournament admittedly feels a bit different once the home team is sent packing; a group (or three) playing with full stadiums of support is uniquely powerful. JR
Sigh. The Netherlands. I never did entirely trust this team, given their weird and very un-Dutch glut of world-class defenders and sparse corps of strikers. Nor did Ronald Koeman ever convince me that he was a modern manager equipped with the flexibility to turn tricky situations around. The writing was on the wall when they drew Morocco in the last 32. Sure, it went to penalties, but Oranje were clinging on from the start. But, like Morocco, they probably would have cruised past Canada at the next stage. LS
Senegal are the big regret. They got a tough group that seemed to damage their confidence, and then they were much better than Belgium in that last-32 tie only to throw away a two-goal lead with five minutes remaining. Belgium’s growth in the tournament is a good story, but Senegal looked a much better team for most of that match. JW
Dark horse to win …
Morocco have been seriously impressive under Mohamed Ouahbi, who has evolved the team that reached the semi-finals four years ago and were knocked out by France. Don’t bet against them gaining revenge when the two teams meet again. EA
It’s hard to single out a dark horse in a field of eight, but I’ll go with Switzerland. Gregor Kobel has 16 saves and conceded just three goals (0.6 per match, behind only Spain and France among teams left). If you split the eight teams into “favorites” – Spain, France, England and Argentina – and “surprises”, the Swiss have the best xG difference (4.9) of the “surprises”. We know they can defend. The question is can they score. EB
Six of the top eight teams in the Fifa rankings are in the quarter-finals. The exceptions are Switzerland (14th) and Norway (19th). Switzerland have benefited from an easy path to the quarter-finals and have shown no signs of contending, so Norway get this tag by default. If a top-eight team can be considered a dark horse, go with Belgium, who showed in their systematic destruction of the USA that the tactical and technical skills of their predecessors are still intact. BD
Norway still feel a tier below the favorites, but their internet-breaking striker is on a scoring clip that defies logic. Haaland has 27 goals in his last 14 competitive internationals and is the first player since Gerd Müller 56 years ago to score at least seven goals in his first four World Cup appearances. That’s enough to make anyone a believer. BAG
Maybe Zohran Mamdani was on to something about this Morocco side. They look so evolved from their run to the semi-final in 2022, embracing a pivot from underdog spoiler to a team who can control a match in most phases. Beating the Netherlands was no small feat, and they will reportedly get Ismael Saibari back after his first-half injury against Canada. JR
Are Norway really just a horse of medium complexion now? This Norwegian side is weird in that they’re only thought to be surprising because they hadn’t been at a World Cup in so long, but they have an awful lot of momentum riding along with them right now. They’re doing that thing where they’re winning even when they don’t play particularly well. If they can squeeze past England, I’d give them a chance against Argentina (probably?) in the semi-finals. LS
Switzerland. They somehow always manage to get further in tournaments than seems plausible; there’s something about them that seems to discourage proper analysis. And they can defend. Argentina cannot exist in this state of high emotion forever, surely, and then they’re a game against another familiar European side from the final. JW
In a tournament where the superstars have all come to the party, Messi has defied his advancing years, Mbappé has been unplayable and Harry Kane has carried on where he left off at Bayern Munich. But there is something about Haaland’s swagger after seeing off Brazil that makes him compelling viewing. England beware. EA
Kane. Without his goal against Panama, England might not finish first in Group L. Without his brace against DR Congo in Atlanta, England might not advance out of the last 32. Without his penalty and assist in the last 16, England might not survive the Azteca and beat Mexico. He’s their most essential piece. EB
Maybe it’s too obvious, but it has to be Messi. He has scored 70% of Argentina’s goals, some of them with a degree of difficulty that would make an Olympic diver shudder. He has put the team on his shoulders. BD
Source: www.theguardian.com
