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The Rams have the advantage by just a field goal on Monday night
The panic button may have been pressed for the Miami Dolphins, who have suffered three straight losses, as they head west to face the Los Angeles Rams and cap Week 10 on Monday Night Football.
Despite the return of Tua Tagovailoa two weeks ago, the Dolphins (2-6) fell short by one score in consecutive games. The only positive? Miami has scored 27 points in each game, a number that had never been seen this season before Tagovailoa's return.
The Rams (4-4) enter this game as winners of three straight games. After a decisive and potentially season-saving win two weeks ago, Los Angeles traveled to Seattle and picked up an overtime win against their division opponent Seattle. The key was the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, giving Matthew Stafford and the offense plenty of weapons.
These two high-profile crimes have one of the highest values of the Week 10 slate. The Rams remain slight favorites against the improving Dolphins, who have now lost six of their last seven. Before we dive into the best bet, here are the current Dolphins vs. Rams odds on some . These odds are current as of the last update of this article but are subject to change.
| MARKET | FANDUEL | DRAFT KINGS | BETMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins are spreading | +2.5 (-106) | +2.5 (-105) | +2.5 (-105) |
| Rams are spreading | -2.5 (-114) | -2.5 (-115) | -2.5 (-115) |
| Dolphins money line | +120 | +114 | +120 |
| Rams money line | -142 | -135 | -145 |
| Over | Over 48.5 (-115) | Over 49 (-108) | Over 49 (-110) |
| Under | Under 48.5 (-105) | Under 49 (-112) | Under 49 (-110) |
Why bet on the Dolphins?
It hasn't been all sunshine and rainbows since Tagovailoa returned under center a few weeks ago. The Dolphins have lost two coin toss games in a row and their preseason playoff hopes are all but gone.
But Tagovailoa's return to center completely changes this Miami offense. Take a look back at his injury in Week 2 against the Bills: In the four games that followed, the Dolphins scored a total of 40 points behind three backup quarterbacks. Head coach Mike McDaniel essentially took oddly shaped blocks and tried to fit them into a square hole.
There is only one person who fits perfectly into this Miami offense, and that is Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins offense finally has the explosiveness it was missing while Tagovailoa recovered from his concussion. Tyreek Hill (who is questionable to play due to a wrist injury) can finally be released, and teams can't get the upper hand and take away a dominant running game from the two-headed monster Raheem Mostert and De'Vachane.
If there was ever a matchup Miami could take advantage of, it would be against this Rams defense. In addition to ranking 22nd in DVOA against the run, the Rams are also 26th in DVOA against the pass and third-worst against the deep ball.
What’s your favorite thing to do in Miami? Build up the ground game heavily to give yourself the opportunity to shoot Hill and Jaylen Waddle deep downfield. Since Tagovailoa's return to center, Miami has passed on just 54% of its plays. Against Los Angeles, opposing running backs also average 109 rushing yards per game (4.3 YPC).
For Miami it will start with the offense continuing its recent success. But ultimately it is necessary for the defense to remain strong.
Why bet on the Rams?
A little over a month ago, it felt like a season was quickly unraveling for the Rams. Injuries disrupted the offensive line and aside from a late comeback against the 49ers, the Rams had a 1-4 record and had nothing to show for their season. Looks like they only needed a bye week.
This reset has changed things drastically for Los Angeles. As the team got healthy, success followed. Three weeks later, the Rams are in the thick of the NFC West race, just half a game behind the current league leaders, the Arizona Cardinals.
Although Cooper Kupp (four games) and Puka Nacua (five) are out for an extended period of time due to injuries, the Rams' offense remains one of the best in football. With that in mind, it's impressive that LA ranks 12th in offensive DVOA.
This is a high-hitting attack with too many weapons at full health, and Matthew Stafford isn't afraid to sling the pigskin. The problem, similar to Miami, lies with the defense. It wasn't easy replacing the huge shoes left behind by Aaron Donald, and it took time for the young players to get used to it. Just look at rookie Jared Verse, who totaled 2.5 sacks over the last two weeks and is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year (-190, ).
It's also important to note that Tyreek Hill comes into this match questionable. The star receiver said he will play “when his body allows it,” according to head coach Mike McDaniel.
Best bet for Dolphins vs. Rams: Tyreek Hill over 75.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
The NFL landscape could look completely different if the Dolphins won both of their coin toss games – which would add value in this matchup. Unfortunately, luck wasn't on Miami's side, now four games under .500.
If there was ever a time for Mike McDaniel to pull out all the stops to secure a win and rejuvenate a struggling Dolphins team, Monday is it. Given the plethora of explosive playmakers surrounding Tagovailoa and the aforementioned issues within the Rams defense, expect a big offensive day from Miami if Hill is able to play
Tyreek Hills over 75.5 receiving yards (-110, ) is the player support to aim for and the best bet for Monday Night Football. Hill had at least 72 yards in all three games in which he had a fully healthy Tagovailoa under center. And that without there being a really explosive game in the last two weeks.
Look for the Dolphins to pound the rock and blast their playful deep shots through Hill. The offense often ran its passing plays through the superstar wideout. He averaged more than 10 goals per game last season, and with the return of a fully healthy team, Hill's numbers should return to average.
