LeBron James is in the midst of one of the worst shooting crises ever Story.
In his last four games, he has missed all 19 of his 3-point attempts. That's just a hair further down RJ Barrett's A record 21 missed 3-pointers without a goal over a four-game span, but in the grand scheme of James' career, that's ultimately not uncommon. He's always been a bit of a cunning shooter. He won his first two MVP awards with three-point shooting that was well below league average. His worst 3-point shooting season (30.9%) since his rookie year (29.0%) came during his magical 2016 championship season.
Jump shooting was always a bigger bonus for him, because in almost every other area he was, well, LeBron. You can get away with blurry shots if you're good at pretty much everything else. But that Lakers' 109-80 loss to the Timberwolves Monday night was the culmination of a disturbing trend that gave us our first real glimpse of what LeBron will be when he's gone LeBron.
The 0-for-4 shooting on 3-pointers is forgivable. But James also shot just 4 of 12 on 2-pointers, for a total of just 10 points. He needed a free throw in the fourth quarter to break double digits. He's now done that in 1,243 consecutive regular season games, but he can't do it quite as easily anymore. Earlier this season there was an 11-point game against Phoenix and a 12-point game against Phoenix thunder on Friday. James only had two games with 12 points or fewer last season, and one of those was a fumble in which he played less than 25 minutes. He already exceeded this value on December 2nd of this season.
In 21 games, James is averaging 22 points. Only his rookie average of 20.9 was lower. He's been over 25 every year since then – until now – and his playing time is almost identical to a year ago. However, volume isn't as concerning as underlying efficiency. The numbers actually suggest that the Lakers would be better off betting less on LeBron but getting a better version of him while he's out there – the Lakers were better by a whopping 15.9 points per 100 possessions , when James wasn't on the field.
LeBron is finally showing physical limitations as he approaches 40
The scariest thing for the Lakers is that James no longer seems as superhuman as he always did. For example, it is no longer an unstoppable freight train in transition. He is still in eighth place In terms of total fast break points per game, it's at 4.3, but that's still a sharp decline from recent years. A year ago it was 5.1 and the year before that it was 6.2.
Its efficiency has also dropped. He is in the 54th percentile of the in terms of points per possession in transition, according to Synergy Sports. This is a career low.
James has placed an emphasis on scoring in transition in recent years, in part to hide minor dips in his penetration in the halfcourt. But now the physical limitations that come with the upcoming 40th birthday are becoming increasingly visible on the statistics sheet. For example, he shoots 67.9% in the restricted area. Again, pretty good in a vacuum, just a far cry from where he himself has been in the recent past. He was at 73.3% a year ago and has been in the low-to-mid 70s throughout his tenure with the Lakers, with the exception of the 2019-20 championship season when the Lakers deliberately limited their spacing around two big men on defense to have. That's not a compromise this year's team is making. He's making just 52.9% of his field goals on drives this season. Last season it was 59.8%.
The Timberwolves game included some pretty shocking misses by James' high standards. On this drive, James struggles to get a clean second down through contact, but more troublingly, look at the freeball he misses on the offensive rebound.
His ability to separate himself from disagreements has also significantly decreased. Naz Reida large man, pursues him across the square for this block.
Where does LeBron go from here?
Rumors of James' demise have already been greatly exaggerated. Remember the calls for the Lakers to trade him after they missed the playoffs in his first season in Los Angeles? If you look closely, you'll find skepticism as early as his return to Cleveland in 2014-15, and that's a testament to the remarkably high standard he's set over the last 22 years.
But his progress as a 3-point shooter should protect him from any steep decline. He hit 41% of his triples a season ago and his volume had steadily increased during his tenure with the Lakers. First year Lakers coach JJ Redick has spoken openly about wanting James to shoot more threes than he has in the past, not fewer. But for his career, jumps were the icing on the cake, not the sundae, and right now it looks like the sundae is finally starting to melt.
But that doesn't mean we can expect too many more 10, 11 and 12 point performances in the near future. Those remain the outliers, even if it's not entirely LeBron LeBron For the most part, night to night, he's still a good player. He's not remotely the defender he once was, but he's still a good scorer and a great playmaker who rebounds far better than most at his position. The worst version of LeBron is still better than most of his peers.
That's just a shocking decline for someone who didn't really have peers at his peak. This is what the downfall of a four-year-old James might look like. The accumulated skills and expertise that come with two decades of dominance could see him remain a very effective player overall until his retirement, but the burden those two decades have placed on his body means he can no longer maximize them in the way he could even a year or two ago.
He's as good as a soon-to-be 40-year-old can be, but we're finally starting to see the limits of how good a soon-to-be 40-year-old can really be. He is mortal now and vulnerable on the wrong nights. Monday was one of those nights, and with his 40th birthday just a few weeks away, there will likely be more of them in the future than ever before.
