The Buffalo Bills play at home in the Wild Card round against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium.
The Bills (13-4) won 10 of 11 games before their loss to the New England Patriots in Week 18, while the Broncos (10-7) have been winners in five of their last seven.
The Bills are ahead by 8.5 points and are playing at home, where they are undefeated this season (8-0). The last time the Bills faced the Broncos was a Defeat in the regular season to a Russell Wilson-led squad at quarterback in 2023, 24-22. The Broncos will roll out rookie Bo Nix under center this time around.
Even though the Bills are favored by multiple points, there are no guarantees in the NFL, especially against playoff teams. Buffalo must execute its game plan to advance in the postseason.
So here are three keys to a Bills win against the Broncos:
Always stay one step ahead
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The Broncos' pass rush is undoubtedly the team's greatest strength. They also led the NFL with 63 sacks, nine more than the second-most 265 quarterback pressures10 more than the second most. Furthermore, theirs 37.4% pressure rate was third best in the league.
The best way to minimize their pass rushers is to avoid second or third-and-long situations. Buffalo will have to keep Denver's defensive front guessing between pass and run. What better team to do that than the one that just became the first team in NFL history to score 30 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns in a season?
The more the Bills can manage the down-and-distance, the better they can combine pass and run, which will make life easier for them on Sunday.
Disguise looks in defense
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Under defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, the Bills defense has hidden coverage at the sixth highest rate in the league (36%). As rookie signal-caller Bo Nix enters Highmark Stadium on Sunday, the disguised looks could make his first playoff start even more difficult than it already will be.
Accordingly Professional football focusNix's target depth against hidden coverages is just 6.2 yards, which ranks 31st out of 32 qualified QBs. Post-snap confusion forced Nix to check the ball for short throws this year. Nix had a remarkable rookie year, but if there's one way to force him to check it out, it's to disguise his appearance. If Nix looks up, tackling in space will be crucial.
Use the home audience for a quick start
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The most rewarding aspect of being one of the AFC's top seeds is getting to play in front of a home crowd in the postseason. For the Bills, the “Bills Mafia” can have a noticeable impact on a game.
With a young, aggressive team like the Broncos, you don't want them hanging around within a score in the fourth quarter. With a proven head coach in Sean Payton, they could do it if given the chance late in the game.
The best way to deal with the Wild Card is to use your home crowd's momentum to get off to a fast start. Bills Mafia have waited 357 days for their next chance at a home playoff game since their disappointing divisional round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. The audience will rock.