Last week I had another tough time with my against-the-spread picks when I reached 6-8, but I was ahead right away at 11-3.
So some good and some bad – as always.
In one of these weeks everything will be fine again. Or am I fantasizing? It has to change, right?
The season records are now 100-66 straight up and 75-88-3 ATS. This means I need to make a big turnaround to get back above .500 ATS. The weeks fly by, so it has to start this week. I see a big week ATS and straight up.
It's November, which means it's high season. Thanksgiving is next week and I would like to be nearing .500 by the time we get to December.
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Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Steelers are playing well, but the Browns are not. But this is a division game on a short away week. This is tough for every team. And Russell Wilson wasn't good last week. The Browns will show up for this game and keep it close. The Steelers will win it with a late win Chris Boswell Field goal, but it's close.
Choose: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Chiefs suffered their first defeat against the Billswhile the Panthers have a bye. If the Chiefs lose, their concentration will be good. This will be important. They regroup and pitch on a team that is much superior to them from a talent standpoint. The Chiefs are getting back on track.
Choose: Chiefs 32, Panthers 13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo test for free)
The Bears lost a heartbreaker last week, but the Vikings have rattled off two road wins in a row and now face a third straight week on the road. This won't be easy. But I think the defense will win this game as they get a lot of looks Caleb Williams and force turnovers. The Vikings will win it.
Choose: Vikings 23, Bears 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Texans are having a short game week, but they looked better on offense against Dallas Nico Collins back. The Titans will have trouble stopping them this week, so keep an eye out for the Texans and CJ Stroud play well. Will Levis won't keep up.
Choose: Texans 31, Titans 21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo test for free)
The Colts looked good in the road win Jets last week, but this is a big step forward in the competition. The Lions offense is back on track and should be successful against the Colts defense. The question is whether Anthony Richardson can do it two weeks in a row. In this case I will take over the Lions.
Choose: Lions 30, Colts 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Dolphins won two games straight away and got back into the playoff race. Tua Tagovailoa has been playing well since returning from concussion issues. The Patriots did some good things with it Drake Mayebut this is an uphill battle on the road. Miami wins another one.
Choose: Dolphins 32, Patriots 21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
That is Tommy DeVito as a quarterback for the Giants who sat on the bench Daniel Jones. It won't matter. The Giants offense struggled for a variety of reasons, not just the quarterback. The Bucs are coming off a break and are getting healthier, which is important. You win it.
Choose: Bucs 27, Giants 13
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo test for free)
The Cowboys are a mess at the moment while the Commanders are coming off a tough loss to the Cowboys eagle. They played on a Thursday, so they have extra rest while the Cowboys are on the road for a Monday night game. Washington is the better team and the extra rest will be enough Jayden Daniels Wonder. Blowout.
Choose: Commanders 31, Cowboys 16
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is a cautionary game for the Broncos. They are on a high after their impressive win over the Hawks last week. But this is a division game on the road. This is important. The Broncos will win it, but it will be close thanks to a solid defensive performance from the Raiders.
Choose: Broncos 20, Raiders 17
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo test for free)
The 49ers are currently reeling. They just don't look like the same team and now face a tough Packers team that beat them in the playoffs last year before bowing out late. The Packers still haven't looked great on offense this season, but the 49ers haven't had the same team period. Seek Jordan love and the Packers offense is playing well here. Packers take it.
Choose: Packers 27, 49ers 20
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo test for free)
The Cardinals missed a bye while the Seahawks need a tough, physical win over the 49ers. That wears out a team. Seattle looked good on defense in this game, but Kyler Murray is going well right now. He'll do it in this game if the Cardinals win a key division game and stay in first place.
Choose: Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo test for free)
The Eagles have solved their problems from the beginning of the year and conquered the NFC East. But that's a long shot against a good team that can't afford any more defeats. With the Rams' offense back on track and their receivers healthy again, I think they'll show up here and pull off the upset.
Choose: Rams 28, Eagles 21
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed its Week 12 including the Eagles-Rams game on Sunday night. Check out the other tips SportsLine.
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo test for free)
The Ravens are playing back-to-back road games after losing a tough, physical battle to the Steelers last week. The offense was disjointed in this game but will now have to face another good defense. The Chargers beat them Bengal behind the play of the offense and I think that will also have an impact on the victory in the battle of the Harbaugh brothers.
Choose: Chargers 31, Ravens 26
