Finally it happened. The New York Giants have discussed parting ways with former franchise quarterback Daniel Jones in recent years, and on Friday they granted his request to be released after benching the former starter. Jones is expected to clear waivers and explore his free agent options in the coming weeks.
The New Orleans Saints could learn from this. The Giants found out they had signed a lemon and took action to get out of their contract with an underperforming quarterback. They didn't let the high guarantees and dead money associated with the Jones move stop them from pulling the trigger. When the time is right, the Saints should do the same with Derek Carr – if it comes to that.
At the moment, Carr is playing the best football of his career. Since returning from an oblique injury, he has scored on 55 of his 83 passes (66.3%), gained 753 yards and scored five touchdowns without throwing an interception. And that's because his top two wide receivers have been unavailable for most of the last three games.
His pass percentage of 106.4 this season is the highest of his career. His sack rate of 3.2% is the second best in his 11 years. More comprehensive stats like adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A, including negative and positive plays like interceptions, sacks, and touchdowns) also give him a high rating. Klint Kubiak has him playing at a higher level than you might think.
So Carr's job probably isn't in jeopardy. That doesn't mean it never will be. We saw how lifeless the offense looked for most of last season. He is 11 years into his NFL career without a playoff win to his name. If he hasn't reached his climax yet, he must be close.
We're not at the point yet where the Saints should try to move Carr. But it could come to that quickly, as it did with the Giants and Jones. New York will have to pay more than $44 million in dead money for the remainder of this year, with a dead money charge of $22.2 million in 2025. How does this compare to a hypothetical split between Carr and the Saints?
Signing the bonus shares would cost the Saints an additional $10 million over the salary cap (which they can't afford) to release Carr immediately, so that's not happening. But they have a decision to make in the offseason. Firing Carr before June 1 would barely break even, saving $1.3 million while leaving more than $50 million in dead money. This calculation made sense for the Giants. It probably won't be something the Saints can handle.
But wait until after that June 1st deadline? That would result in $30 million worth of savings. The Saints would pay $21.4 million toward the 2025 salary cap, then another $28.6 million toward the 2026 salary cap, and then they're clear through 2027. We could certainly see things change over the last six weeks and into the offseason. It follows that this is their best bet. The question is whether the Saints' new head coach wants Carr and how they can get under the salary cap and then sign new players without touching Carr's $51.4 million cap hit until well after the draft in April.
So the math says their best solution is (very likely) to stick with Carr. That doesn't mean it will be the best path forward in six months or this time next year. Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener could develop into a legitimate starter, a new head coach could have his eye on his own quarterback, or something else unforeseen happens. That's how the NFL works sometimes. And like we saw with Jones and the Giants? Sometimes the writing is already on the wall.