There is a clear path to the postseason for the San Francisco 49ers, which began in Week 10 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and continues in Week 11 against the Seattle Seahawks.
The game in Tampa Bay was practically a must for the previously 4-4 49ers. A 4-5 defeat could have had catastrophic consequences. Unfortunately, they won 23:20 away from home. Although it was a significant win, it was only the first step for the 49ers. Perhaps more important is Sunday's game against the Seattle Seahawks.
It doesn't look like the 49ers' path back to the playoffs will ever be easy this season. They could simply win the rest of their games and punch their ticket that way, but with games coming up in Green Bay, in Buffalo, at home against the Lions, Dolphins and Rams, and in Arizona, the likelihood of them winning is slim . That brings a handful of other scenarios to the table.
There are too many different ways this could all play out to list here, but there's a real chance that tiebreakers for either the division or a wildcard spot could come into play. The bottom line for Sunday's game is that the 49ers can't forfeit another game in the division after losing to the Cardinals and Rams earlier this year.
NFL tiebreakers for the division begin with a head-to-head record. With a win on Sunday, the 49ers would win the season with the Seahawks and climb further ahead of them in the table. If the teams split their head-to-head matchups, which the 49ers would do if they beat the Rams and Cardinals, then the next tiebreaker is a division record.
San Francisco needs three wins in the division to get there, and their second run through the NFC West begins on Sunday.
There is also a wildcard element that needs to be taken into account.
The first tiebreaker for wildcard teams is a direct duel. We'll cross that bridge next week when the 49ers visit the No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers. The next tiebreaker is a conference record, and San Francisco's three NFC losses to start the year put them behind the curve in that category.
Earning NFC wins is essential not only to maintaining a playoff-caliber record, but also to gaining a potential tiebreaker advantage.
San Francisco could still make the postseason if they lose on Sunday. However, a win makes the road a lot easier, and figuring out what a loss to Seattle looks like is likely a version of the playoff picture they want to avoid.