With a win over the 49ers at Lambeau Field on Sunday, the Green Bay Packers could be on the verge of securing a playoff spot and significantly dent the San Francisco 49ers' chances of making the postseason.
Timo Riske of Pro Football Focus tracks the playoff chances and the “leverage” of individual games every week.
In Week 12, the Packers can improve their playoff chances to over 90 percent and beat the 49ers by nearly 15 percent with a win in Sunday's playoff rematch – making the game one of the most important in this week's NFC postseason chase .
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The Packers are 7-3 and currently own the No. 6 seed in the NFC. The 49ers are 5-5 behind the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West and in 10th place in the NFC playoffs.
The 49ers are already 1-3 in the NFC West – with a home loss to the Cardinals – and 3-4 overall in the conference. A fifth conference loss — especially against a team ahead of them in the wild-card standings — would be devastating.
With a win, the Packers could improve to 8-3 and ensure they have at least a two-win lead over any team currently behind them in the postseason standings. According to Riske's prediction, a loss would reduce the Packers' playoff chances to under 60 percent, while the 49ers' chances would rise to over 50 percent.
The other extremely important game in this week's NFC playoff race is Cardinals vs. Seahawks. A Cardinals win would bring Arizona's playoff chances to just under 80 percent, but a loss would drop them below 40.
The NFC playoff race could actually gain a lot of clarity this week.
If the Packers, Cardinals and Commanders all win, the conference's top seven teams would all have playoff chances of over 70 percent in Week 13 – including five (Packers, Commanders, Vikings, Lions, Eagles) over 90 percent.
NFC playoff rankings
1. Detroit Lions: 9-1, face Indianapolis Colts in Week 12
2. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-2, face Los Angeles Rams in Week 12
3. Arizona Cardinals: 6-4, face Seattle Seahawks in Week 12
4. Atlanta Falcons: 6-5, bye week
5. Minnesota Vikings: 8-2, face Chicago Bears in Week 12
6. Green Bay Packers: 7-3, face San Francisco 49ers in Week 12
7. Washington Commanders: 7-4, will face Dallas Cowboys in Week 12
8. Los Angeles Rams: 5-5, face Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12
9. Seattle Seahawks: 5-5, face Arizona Cardinals in Week 12
10. San Francisco 49ers: 5-5, face Green Bay Packers in Week 12
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4-6, face New York Giants in Week 12
12. Chicago Bears: 4-6, face Minnesota Vikings in Week 12